Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: ThunderTalk Gaming vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50fd2015a6a3ccac089a740d5b5e087d51ccb6e995c6465ee819c0dd3956c112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof ThunderTalk, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed ThunderTalk | 38c | 15,313$5,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,783.68 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed NIP | 61c | 14,081$8,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,464.25 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed ThunderTalk | 35c | 12,798$4,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,494.27 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed NIP | 36c | 10,000$3,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,398.91 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed ThunderTalk | 44c | 9,352$4,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,141.33 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed NIP | 64c | 8,792$5,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,165.18 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed NIP | 67c | 8,000$5,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed ThunderTalk | 60c | 6,000$3,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,610 | 484 | 48.6%235 W · 249 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked ThunderTalk | 34c | 5,682$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.19 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…34b3backed NIP | 62c | 4,925$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.33 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed NIP | 63c | 4,327$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.75 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed NIP | 48c | 3,477$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.42 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed NIP | 54c | 3,000$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked ThunderTalk | 38c | 2,631$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.78 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ffaabacked ThunderTalk | 40c | 2,606$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 2,409$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.19 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed NIP | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed NIP | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked NIP | 62c | 1,700$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked NIP | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed NIP | 54c | 1,379$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.69 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked ThunderTalk | 36c | 1,310$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.51 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed NIP | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed NIP | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked ThunderTalk | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked NIP | 62c | 893.5$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.53 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed NIP | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed NIP | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed ThunderTalk | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked ThunderTalk | 39c | 788.63$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.57 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked NIP | 68c | 750$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 796 | 53.1%423 W · 373 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked NIP | 42c | 663.84$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.54 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked ThunderTalk | 59c | 649.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.5 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked ThunderTalk | 44c | 587.52$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked ThunderTalk | 34c | 577.27$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 323 | 50.8%164 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed NIP | 65c | 524.09$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.66 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed NIP | 54c | 435.12$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 152 | 32.2%49 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed ThunderTalk | 26c | 417.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked NIP | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked ThunderTalk | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked NIP | 62c | 300$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed NIP | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked NIP | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked NIP | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…cecbbacked NIP | 44c | 214.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked NIP | 55c | 204.51$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed NIP | 56c | 204.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed NIP | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked NIP | 78c | 154.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked NIP | 65c | 154.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed NIP | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 205 | 63.9%131 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked ThunderTalk | 63c | 140$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…a00ebacked ThunderTalk | 35c | 131.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…4dddbacked ThunderTalk | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…98b9backed ThunderTalk | 43c | 117.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed NIP | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…7485backed NIP | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed NIP | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed ThunderTalk | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 259 | 52.9%137 W · 122 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed NIP | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed ThunderTalk | 38c | 99.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 217 | 35.9%78 W · 139 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed ThunderTalk | 35c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed NIP | 63c | 84.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed ThunderTalk | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…8732backed NIP | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed NIP | 62c | 68.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 364 | 65.1%237 W · 127 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed NIP | 55c | 66.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked NIP | 61c | 58.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 228 | 58.3%133 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed NIP | 63c | 48.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NIP | 36c | 48.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed ThunderTalk | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked NIP | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 174 | 66.7%116 W · 58 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed NIP | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed ThunderTalk | 38c | 37.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked NIP | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NIP | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked ThunderTalk | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked NIP | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.