TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Soxof Orioles, Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles53c12,527$6,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,654.4386751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Orioles6c5,440$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.64504%2 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Red Sox55c3,858$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.1721356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c53…c9b0backed Orioles27c3,384$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.456425%16 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles45c3,286$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.612,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed Red Sox55c3,104$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.7210746.7%50 W · 57 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked Orioles45c3,010$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Red Sox30c3,001$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.8115745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f3…e75bbacked Orioles16c2,730$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.961668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…8687backed Red Sox62c2,429$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.688457.1%48 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x587b…7cdbbacked Orioles45c2,300$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Red Sox55c2,220$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.8739041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Orioles5c2,100$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.384754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64a…27c9backed Orioles29c2,007$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.865545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Red Sox60c1,759$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.7819239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles44c1,579$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.821,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Red Sox40c1,542$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.0340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e4a…2a73backed Red Sox55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ac…957dbacked Orioles70c1,324$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.043748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3def…08b4backed Red Sox63c1,284$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.133161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Red Sox55c1,151$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.9627948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28aa…a986backed Orioles13c1,100$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Orioles1c1,096$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.418762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Red Sox57c1,059$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.317651.3%39 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox67c1,029$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.519,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f94…e165backed Red Sox55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Orioles45c999.93$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.9713353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles45c844.5$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.0333349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Red Sox57c840$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.131,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…adc4backed Red Sox55c799.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Red Sox52c761.17$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.8713946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29db…ae12backed Orioles41c729.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.191050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Red Sox52c700$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.5141751.3%214 W · 203 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Orioles3c588.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5612314.6%18 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles44c573.45$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Red Sox54c569.99$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.220450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Red Sox57c555$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.47650%38 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39d…3bcabacked Orioles50c540.74$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.654856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Orioles45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22593240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Orioles4c450$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9938…c7e8backed Red Sox64c443.23$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5610858.3%63 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7003…a528backed Orioles45c440$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x547b…5d1abacked Red Sox55c440$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles46c436.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Orioles42c392.61$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.62425%6 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0ee…cea7backed Red Sox37c391.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.991758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Red Sox57c385.44$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7411446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Red Sox55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6438455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Red Sox56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1421242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Red Sox55c340.33$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.83850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13268656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Orioles45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1358156.8%46 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles49c293.59$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4863942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Red Sox55c280.19$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8996133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles45c272.96$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.831,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Red Sox55c271.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0620150.2%101 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37aa…00febacked Orioles58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Red Sox38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15514539.3%57 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Orioles43c237.47$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.561540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Orioles45c220.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8565549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Red Sox56c214.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2923852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93dc…896fbacked Orioles7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Red Sox49c199.95$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.9813848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Red Sox59c194.88$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.416055.6%89 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked Orioles45c190.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.957549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Orioles55c188.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5651334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.822,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Red Sox55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8223938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Red Sox56c179.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6720645.1%93 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Red Sox58c173.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.61,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Red Sox56c170$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.88652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Red Sox71c141.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5632832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb05…4d1dbacked Red Sox42c138.43$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.441855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Orioles40c131.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.336132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Red Sox31c129.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0334051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…5f97backed Red Sox39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.218146.9%38 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Red Sox32c124.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.071,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7cc…2669backed Orioles43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8f…7178backed Red Sox59c109.07$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.072254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a2…8e7cbacked Orioles44c106.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Red Sox46c105.57$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5770841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9187…ae44backed Orioles45c101.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a3…9af0backed Red Sox56c101.05$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Red Sox55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4525416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe36e…a46cbacked Orioles45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Orioles42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220448%98 W · 106 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4146…1886backed Orioles46c94.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84e…f79fbacked Red Sox56c93.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Orioles39c92.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.113444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Orioles39c92.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.112842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Orioles39c92.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.113948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6675…5976backed Red Sox56c92.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.724100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+111.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x109b…9556backed Red Sox56c92.32$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a0…3aecbacked Red Sox56c91.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939e…c40ebacked Orioles45c91.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox55c90.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1994455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb45…087cbacked Orioles46c90.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ad…702abacked Orioles45c90.04$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed Red Sox56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.293743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.