TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$662,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$800,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $662,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere79c56,499$44,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,030.4276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91c8…3ba8backed FaZe0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FaZe15c39,272$5,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,843.453,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FaZe25c23,968$5,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,967.7581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FaZe54c21,700$11,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,678.4550054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4d…8525backed Natus Vincere70c17,376$12,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,172.721942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FaZe21c14,565$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.0563541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked FaZe20c13,608$2,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.6241040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed FaZe38c9,336$3,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.7765546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed FaZe22c8,902$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.754748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FaZe21c8,732$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.842,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Natus Vincere79c8,381$6,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.2465650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FaZe32c7,582$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.233,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Natus Vincere80c7,500$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50013151.9%68 W · 63 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked FaZe20c7,383$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.6275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85a4…9aabbacked FaZe72c6,906$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007054.3%38 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed FaZe35c6,900$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4156737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Natus Vincere80c6,537$5,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.2138358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FaZe36c6,435$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.92,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere62c5,762$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.3549646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed FaZe30c5,084$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.5532425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FaZe28c5,001$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.085,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Natus Vincere80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00042651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere78c4,907$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.4846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Natus Vincere80c4,500$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Natus Vincere79c4,122$3,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.6437157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Natus Vincere59c3,938$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.0833452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed FaZe20c3,781$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.116152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere80c3,500$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked FaZe27c3,418$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.831050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FaZe19c3,284$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.0164552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed FaZe20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60015648.1%75 W · 81 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Natus Vincere62c2,927$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.132548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Natus Vincere79c2,910$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.4546165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere73c2,722$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.5637646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked FaZe21c2,500$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51534943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked FaZe20c2,450$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed FaZe21c2,442$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.8611243.8%49 W · 63 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Natus Vincere80c2,250$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb246…8561backed FaZe19c2,069$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.11526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed FaZe23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46023243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FaZe31c1,947$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60052837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf52f…b2f5backed FaZe23c1,779$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.537364.4%47 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere65c1,673$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.841,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FaZe21c1,597$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.3740253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FaZe31c1,549$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.13,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed FaZe21c1,540$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.463458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed FaZe37c1,472$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.8114848%71 W · 77 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere56c1,457$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.0487047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FaZe20c1,336$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.281,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed Natus Vincere76c1,300$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3118862.5%55 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked Natus Vincere80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25013553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere65c1,233$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.521,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked Natus Vincere73c1,211$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.346355.6%35 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Natus Vincere80c1,113$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.53756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed FaZe17c1,059$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2549941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FaZe52c1,046$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.062,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked FaZe21c1,025$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2535242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere57c1,005$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.064,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Natus Vincere80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20038954.5%212 W · 177 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed FaZe2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161030%0 W · 103 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23064852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed FaZe42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9762350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere59c977.24$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.221,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed FaZe19c961.68$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.554261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed FaZe34c949.99$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3231637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked FaZe30c899.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9943237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere49c898.72$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.653,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FaZe27c888.82$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.526,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere61c866.45$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8488746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere62c830.77$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.171450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed FaZe40c829.87$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.512630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed FaZe18c828$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.752944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Natus Vincere48c818.91$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.2645639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcef8…a4edbacked FaZe3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+258.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed FaZe31c800$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.941540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FaZe60c778.18$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.861,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed FaZe20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0900…6258backed FaZe64c750$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.734148.8%20 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FaZe23c749.91$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.741,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Natus Vincere79c737.34$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8475450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed FaZe26c734.62$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19120838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere71c703.89$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.391,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a21…ba51backed FaZe21c695.24$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1463641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb126…f338backed Natus Vincere65c673.21$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2110646.2%49 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed FaZe30c669.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.23234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed FaZe30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Natus Vincere62c642.27$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.0639970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FaZe23c616.3$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.751,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4e…d0c6backed FaZe18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Natus Vincere59c550$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.2531852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked FaZe30c543.22$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.011,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed FaZe23c541.11$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.077332.9%24 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4209…7582backed Natus Vincere80c537.5$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.53836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd91…3cc3backed FaZe22c517.54$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.564344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed FaZe35c514.29$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed FaZe24c513.82$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.225036%18 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc4…d48cbacked FaZe23c512.55$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1313543.7%59 W · 76 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked FaZe26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13058343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e16…b78abacked Natus Vincere42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.