TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs The Last Resort (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
The Last Resortof QUAZAR, The Last Resort
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0467…fb2ebacked The Last Resort42c8,166$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,738.411533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked QUAZAR58c5,736$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,314.315,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed QUAZAR58c4,800$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,78414051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked QUAZAR8c1,981$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616146%74 W · 87 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked The Last Resort75c1,151$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.191,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked The Last Resort44c1,087$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.8192456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked QUAZAR25c1,015$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.567,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed The Last Resort59c991.63$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.3862248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed The Last Resort42c952.36$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3738841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed QUAZAR58c878.32$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.6246555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked QUAZAR36c854.46$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.793,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed QUAZAR39c672.49$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.511,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed The Last Resort40c672.32$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.643956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed The Last Resort55c657.32$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.0368659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed QUAZAR42c600.31$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.142,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed QUAZAR12c555$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5124551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked The Last Resort41c551.79$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.813642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed QUAZAR58c549.34$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.086,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2b…cec3backed The Last Resort55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.458045%36 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed The Last Resort42c429$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.825,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed QUAZAR61c399.8$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.031,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked The Last Resort40c385.2$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.059732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed The Last Resort73c378.88$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.182,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa24a…8382backed The Last Resort61c370.85$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6214248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed QUAZAR58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed QUAZAR58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed The Last Resort77c343.1$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1115244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed QUAZAR47c338.36$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6166436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked The Last Resort21c312.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.12,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed The Last Resort43c289.21$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8599148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked The Last Resort68c281.78$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.986258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed The Last Resort79c254.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.355766.7%38 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed QUAZAR58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14529246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37c…ef29backed QUAZAR79c249.85$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.72268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b8…b6a0backed QUAZAR57c245.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed QUAZAR67c229.47$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.744,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd441…87febacked QUAZAR23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.772927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked The Last Resort78c188.21$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.675251.9%27 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed QUAZAR65c187.8$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12215347.1%72 W · 81 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d96…3d50backed The Last Resort74c184$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.841478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick61cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x009c…049bbacked QUAZAR58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010444.2%46 W · 58 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked QUAZAR34c165.46$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.612,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed The Last Resort66c165.11$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.12,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked QUAZAR43c157$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8438032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed QUAZAR64c156.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9977351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed QUAZAR57c147.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.192,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked The Last Resort47c140$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.871,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked QUAZAR40c138$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.453,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed QUAZAR40c136.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9328434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed The Last Resort41c134.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1519245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed The Last Resort19c133.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5970042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked QUAZAR41c133$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.173,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed QUAZAR39c128.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2840542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked QUAZAR58c119.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.791,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed QUAZAR37c115.96$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4845748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed QUAZAR36c108.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3922942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed QUAZAR51c106$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.562,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d85…dd2bbacked The Last Resort72c102.47$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.961030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed The Last Resort41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5910053%53 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked QUAZAR69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6958254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked The Last Resort40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6020637.9%78 W · 128 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f4…bd70backed QUAZAR58c96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.683154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed QUAZAR65c94.11$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.871,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed QUAZAR26c93.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1188330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed The Last Resort50c87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9224746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked QUAZAR27c84.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6660032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked The Last Resort34c76.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3333340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd85…1d60backed The Last Resort40c75.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0420147.3%95 W · 106 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed QUAZAR60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.631,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed The Last Resort28c72.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4626344.1%116 W · 147 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f50…e12bbacked The Last Resort55c71.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.384942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed The Last Resort36c71.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5547054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked QUAZAR44c70.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1810438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed The Last Resort42c70.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.077944.3%35 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180a…bd66backed QUAZAR58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016355.2%90 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked QUAZAR58c60.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9713060.8%79 W · 51 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed The Last Resort35c58.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4625635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed QUAZAR58c58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.647856.4%44 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked The Last Resort35c57.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.614543.4%63 W · 82 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked QUAZAR39c56.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.051,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd547…64c4backed The Last Resort36c55.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.582321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0010…c3a8backed The Last Resort60c55.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1731673.7%233 W · 83 L+23.6wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked The Last Resort78c54.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.130450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked The Last Resort23c53.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2710947.7%52 W · 57 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked The Last Resort74c53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.781,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0905…1523backed QUAZAR58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305851.7%30 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed QUAZAR43c51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed QUAZAR59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked QUAZAR24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.849242.1%207 W · 285 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…71c9backed The Last Resort29c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.76350.8%32 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked The Last Resort72c45.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.621,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed The Last Resort42c44.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6224054.6%131 W · 109 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked QUAZAR42c42.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7563038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89d8…df71backed The Last Resort36c42.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.344045%18 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed QUAZAR46c41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9721251.9%110 W · 102 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f0…c32dbacked QUAZAR74c40.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked The Last Resort69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221,27471.5%911 W · 363 L+3.3wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed QUAZAR71c39.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed The Last Resort60c36.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7632544.3%144 W · 181 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked QUAZAR28c35.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0474653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.