NFL · resolved market
Who will get drafted first: Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54cec3d249c3760754c5d157399b2caee04daefb99ed37e9372f6c12a9ba0358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dartof Sanders, Dart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Dart | 20c | 3,547$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.45 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…e850backed Dart | 36c | 1,112$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Dart | 36c | 1,086$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.77 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Dart | 32c | 1,059$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.25 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Sanders | 69c | 1,020$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.6 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Sanders | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sanders | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…690ebacked Dart | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc2…b496backed Sanders | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…fee5backed Dart | 25c | 975$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Dart | 38c | 803.53$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.93 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…5c92backed Sanders | 51c | 723.59$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…9eeebacked Sanders | 75c | 630$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Dart | 21c | 581.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.04 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Dart | 50c | 523.87$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.87 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a6fbacked Sanders | 75c | 480$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…66d7backed Sanders | 75c | 455$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Dart | 43c | 403.19$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +233.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Sanders | 66c | 384.59$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Dart | 52c | 357.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Sanders | 80c | 350$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Dart | 37c | 311.14$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.15 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Sanders | 56c | 282$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Dart | 48c | 273$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Dart | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…882dbacked Dart | 40c | 240$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +214%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Dart | 28c | 202.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Dart | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Dart | 43c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…fccfbacked Sanders | 75c | 195$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Dart | 14c | 176.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Sanders | 75c | 170$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…c713backed Dart | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Dart | 14c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Sanders | 66c | 142$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Dart | 12c | 134.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed Dart | 40c | 117$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Sanders | 62c | 113.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Dart | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Dart | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Sanders | 62c | 96.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Dart | 49c | 88.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Dart | 20c | 88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Dart | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Dart | 24c | 53.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Sanders | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Dart | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed Sanders | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…1f08backed Sanders | 68c | 43.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Sanders | 72c | 41.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Dart | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Sanders | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa246…a09cbacked Sanders | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Sanders | 80c | 15.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.