Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5543da8c624cf472eba583cc702de63b4b2425db9495f1ea5c07a500e57622be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 50c | 8,086$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.62 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…bd13backed Under | 49c | 4,700$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb39…41dbbacked Over | 51c | 4,700$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 51c | 3,515$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.2 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 52c | 1,389$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.64 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Over | 47c | 1,057$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…8bc9backed Over | 52c | 1,043$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 48c | 1,039$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Under | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 50c | 921.98$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.85 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…b792backed Under | 53c | 697.57$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 53c | 456.95$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…c307backed Over | 48c | 341.67$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 43c | 334.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…b310backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…8011backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 260.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Over | 47c | 223.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…36d7backed Over | 43c | 213.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Under | 56c | 204$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 46c | 203$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 47c | 187.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…2e2bbacked Over | 52c | 186.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 172.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 57c | 161.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 153.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…be99backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Over | 48c | 140.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 58c | 134.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 62c | 117.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 50c | 109.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…f5e9backed Over | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 21c | 104.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…4ba3backed Over | 50c | 100.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 52c | 91.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 654 | 47.4%310 W · 344 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 46c | 86.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 52c | 84.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…1b02backed Over | 47c | 84.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 47c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 675 | 46.1%311 W · 364 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c02ebacked Under | 64c | 83.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…0f25backed Over | 47c | 81.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 42c | 81.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…7687backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 40c | 69.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 28c | 66.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…5acdbacked Over | 49c | 59.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…2f09backed Over | 48c | 58.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 42c | 54.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 53c | 49.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…195bbacked Under | 53c | 45.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Over | 47c | 42.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 57c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…24abbacked Over | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…a35dbacked Over | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…368dbacked Over | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Over | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 66c | 37.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 53c | 29.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Under | 75c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…aa3fbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Yandex won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.