Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564061b269ddb35554f9df16d4d7a21d8c7abf69e36a56865a0d9f2b5b06da8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 31c | 917.25$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.55 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 77c | 597.54$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 502.13$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 500.07$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 44c | 409.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.18 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 389.88$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 347.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 317$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 254.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 45c | 243.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 233.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 233.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 198.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 40c | 190$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 178$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 18c | 169.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 167.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 167$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 155.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 7c | 145.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed No | 42c | 144.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 48c | 135.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 44c | 115.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 58c | 103.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 100.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 37c | 99.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 45c | 87.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 46c | 86.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 76.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 70c | 71.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 65.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 76c | 64.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 62.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 60.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 58.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 50.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 50.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 41c | 50.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 48.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 33c | 48.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 47.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 54c | 43.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 42.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 26c | 41.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 45c | 40.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 34.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 33.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 59c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 45c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…087bbacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 19.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 66c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 68c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.