Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5859e167ae748a10ca0952a3d025d4a68359b154b0468124cebb76d0bb5fc739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 25c | 2,472$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.3 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 33c | 1,658$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.59 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 29c | 761.44$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.48 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed Yes | 47c | 695.19$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 26c | 521.58$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.79 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 37c | 468.47$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.07 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 398$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 25c | 397.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.91 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 3c | 393$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 43c | 385.17$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 76c | 380$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 371.52$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed No | 29c | 345.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.12 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 60c | 338.69$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.22 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…35ebbacked Yes | 65c | 280.08$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 253.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 56c | 230.69$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 49c | 215$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 75c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 77c | 199.04$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked No | 55c | 182.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…9430backed Yes | 71c | 169.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 67c | 168.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed No | 67c | 130.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 123.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 74c | 116.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 53c | 107.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…cdfcbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 54c | 99.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 73c | 97.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 41c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed No | 51c | 88.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…ef89backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58f…130dbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed No | 62c | 67.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 79c | 59.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 46c | 56.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…49f3backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 53c | 56.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed No | 54c | 55.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 55c | 49.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 75c | 44.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…52adbacked Yes | 25c | 44.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…cd85backed Yes | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…3d83backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ad…b33bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 38.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…2a1dbacked Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked No | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 72c | 33.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 46c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 68c | 28.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 53c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…5777backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…93a7backed No | 65c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…777fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.