Earnings · resolved market
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59582fcacf2fc1a3ed5f3b8270a515502dccb5c78ac15495c0e964b1fdab9112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 20c | 1,246$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51aa…10dabacked Yes | 61c | 329.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…954abacked No | 69c | 291.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 35c | 248.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 226.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 209.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f2…3098backed Yes | 26c | 202.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…daffbacked No | 52c | 190.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 181.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 42c | 171.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 161.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 57c | 140.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 40c | 112$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 30c | 103.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 93.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 40c | 89.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 31c | 86.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 27c | 80.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 40c | 73.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 19c | 71.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 35c | 50.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…a251backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…ab0fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…a8adbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 49.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab48…30bebacked No | 63c | 47.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac20…3973backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 45c | 40.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 32c | 35.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 35.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 40c | 31.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 62c | 28.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 62c | 27.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 53c | 24.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked No | 80c | 21.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…dcd0backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…9d9dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ff0ebacked No | 75c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 75c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.