La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a97dbcccf16a0e0b06114e0c404322ccc4ed8cfc1f990ade8eb24e54f8be83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 5,313$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,087.01 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 52c | 4,603$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.82 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 3,185$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.49 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 50c | 1,999$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Under | 74c | 1,999$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Under | 80c | 1,500$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.46 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 59c | 1,356$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 10c | 849$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.48 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 9c | 833.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.3 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 9c | 833.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.3 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 9c | 747.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.44 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 21c | 540.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.91 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…cb64backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 45c | 465.19$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 54c | 440$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.45 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 414.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.29 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Under | 79c | 367.09$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed Under | 72c | 308$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…5737backed Under | 78c | 302$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 18c | 291$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 95 | 28.4%27 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Over | 53c | 255.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Under | 78c | 233.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 73c | 178.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…1637backed Over | 60c | 113.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 79c | 104.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 102.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 28c | 101.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 80c | 100.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0860…d30fbacked Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 30c | 95.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 87.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…958dbacked Under | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 16c | 75.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 34c | 69.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 21c | 68.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 78c | 68.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Over | 17c | 67.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 59c | 62.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 129 | 64.3%83 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 21c | 60.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 58c | 48.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…70ffbacked Under | 44c | 38.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.28per pick | 60cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 63c | 38.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…625bbacked Under | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…7095backed Under | 64c | 31.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…3bb5backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 113 | 66.4%75 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 68c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…bcb3backed Under | 78c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Levante UD (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.