Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5afb53aa4b062d59c162a20be40914bcdbaf11d29fc4eb10dbc5ddd1cd62f3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 1,817$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.81 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,777$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,362$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 1,001$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 652.81$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 33c | 516.79$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 420.55$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 381.31$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 367$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 65c | 324.69$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.39 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 50c | 241.54$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 226.17$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 181.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 177.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 161.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked Yes | 35c | 159.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 148.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 137.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 132.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 111.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 109.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 38c | 105.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 38c | 105.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 100.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 95.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 89.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 83.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 56c | 78.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 51c | 77.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 40c | 67.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 62.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 53.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 52.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 52.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 50c | 50.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 46c | 49.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 45.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 35c | 40.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 38.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 38.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 36.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 65c | 36.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 65c | 35.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 32.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…7ce9backed No | 58c | 30.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 27.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed No | 59c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 26.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 72c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 68c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.