TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe176…0f99backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-60.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes37c1,817$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.8189544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c1,777$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c1,362$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.461,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c1,001$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c652.81$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.892,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes33c516.79$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2118732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No67c420.55$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.682,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No66c381.31$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.792,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c367$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No65c324.69$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3859923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No56c300$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.391,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed No50c241.54$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0316038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No67c226.17$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c181.44$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.52,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No66c177.65$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No59c161.01$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.012,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2432…27ddbacked Yes35c159.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No68c148.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes29c137.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.873,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No66c132.65$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.11,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c116$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.122,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No68c111.85$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.551,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No66c109.66$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.531,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed Yes38c105.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes38c105.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8526025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c105$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c100.97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.84,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5077555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c95.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.283,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.13951.3%20 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c89.35$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.494,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c83.4$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.94,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed No56c78.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.214161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked No51c77.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.27132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.861,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed Yes40c67.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.015658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c67.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.169,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c62.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.995,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…a080backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes32c53.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.061,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c52.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.328,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No65c52.04$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.964,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No50c50.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4950648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1670148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes46c49.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.672,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes36c48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.284,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c45.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.643,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes35c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes36c41.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes35c40.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.312846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.554,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No68c39.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8417759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c38.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.376,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c38.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.154,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No50c36.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked No65c36.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.925754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes32c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x191e…ef6bbacked No65c35.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.353256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No36c32.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.891,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b2…7ce9backed No58c30.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No73c28.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6394066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85aa…691bbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.122259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c27.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.671,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…5199backed No59c26.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.683357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes45c26.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.672,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No72c20.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.639768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.246857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.043,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No70c17.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.428360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes59c16.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No68c16.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0928035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No66c16.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4672042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed No70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.558469%58 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.