Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619923a8b9c8d5dcdf763fa8b062cce820b9eb49678539e09ba39c73f14e2b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 1,831$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,106$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 843.05$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 775.68$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.93 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 611.19$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 425.07$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 407.36$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 373$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 68c | 317.38$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 267.67$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 245.13$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 49c | 208$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 185.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 180.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 171$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 163.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 135.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 113.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 111.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 12c | 106.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 101.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked Yes | 42c | 97.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 97.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 97.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 27c | 94.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 56c | 93.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 58c | 88.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 83.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 83.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 83.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 54c | 78.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 78.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 40c | 77.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 72.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 40c | 71.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 69.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 64.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 43c | 59.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 43c | 59.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 58.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 57.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 55.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 56c | 49.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 46.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 44.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 43.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 42.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 42.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 39.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 38.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 35.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 42c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 69c | 33.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 80c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 28.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 58c | 28.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 17.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.