TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NRG vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EYEBALLERSof NRG, EYEBALLERS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$191,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked EYEBALLERS48c23,299$11,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,001.833,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed NRG58c10,575$6,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,108.1272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed EYEBALLERS60c7,607$4,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.9557358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked NRG49c6,191$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.271,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked NRG46c5,590$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.4815245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked NRG50c4,709$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.821,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed NRG53c4,512$2,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.2616152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed NRG50c3,873$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,951.62,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NRG29c3,858$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.177,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked EYEBALLERS77c3,537$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.439970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked NRG47c3,403$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.621,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EYEBALLERS64c3,141$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.956,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed NRG47c2,622$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.9187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed EYEBALLERS48c2,444$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.0324944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed NRG51c2,155$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.5939248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NRG48c2,042$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.031,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked EYEBALLERS48c1,973$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.7327740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed EYEBALLERS42c1,904$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.313458.8%20 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+47.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EYEBALLERS47c1,816$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.2381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x384d…d538backed NRG51c1,807$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.2810951.4%56 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EYEBALLERS46c1,760$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.892,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed EYEBALLERS58c1,489$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.81,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed NRG17c1,488$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7467372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked EYEBALLERS60c1,479$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.312,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked NRG30c1,427$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.963,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed NRG18c1,330$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.161837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed NRG57c1,329$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.3737445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked NRG40c1,090$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.619741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed NRG29c1,084$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.3920440.7%83 W · 121 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed EYEBALLERS47c1,030$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.932653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed NRG51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51014847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed NRG45c957.29$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.424,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed EYEBALLERS51c946.63$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.189850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked EYEBALLERS48c931.83$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.645,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed EYEBALLERS45c900$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed NRG28c858.56$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.295,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked NRG36c769.11$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0534147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e9…7a6abacked NRG21c692.12$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.722245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed EYEBALLERS45c659.99$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.999656.3%54 W · 42 L+10.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked NRG55c617.19$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4624538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed EYEBALLERS61c600$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23431444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe207…56c7backed NRG56c595.9$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.73435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x676f…43c1backed NRG53c583.08$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.031625%4 W · 12 L-5.1wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-54.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc42e…0fd9backed EYEBALLERS46c580.56$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed NRG55c573.19$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.2510442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked EYEBALLERS48c555.49$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.0865650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5005…f1b3backed NRG53c553.93$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff5…7bd9backed EYEBALLERS53c551.85$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.344344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad2…fcd9backed EYEBALLERS46c551.53$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed NRG30c543.48$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.191,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed NRG26c524.07$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.951,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed NRG43c520.57$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9927950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked EYEBALLERS47c507.33$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.0735242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EYEBALLERS80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10040950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked NRG50c478.63$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.062,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG24c473.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.612,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x892b…b4fabacked NRG29c472.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-54.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked EYEBALLERS60c419.68$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8719047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed NRG57c411.47$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5646345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NRG36c409.51$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.055,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed NRG51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20453444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed EYEBALLERS43c386.32$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.21,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed NRG51c383.38$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0155950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed EYEBALLERS70c383$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3424641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f4…fa45backed EYEBALLERS67c371.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.638645.3%39 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed EYEBALLERS60c336.8$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.474,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed NRG56c317.88$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7349646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked NRG38c309.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5323056.1%129 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed EYEBALLERS60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12012452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed NRG57c280.87$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7933352.6%175 W · 158 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked EYEBALLERS52c273.67$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.282,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked NRG38c255.84$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2635449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked NRG32c255.54$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6422534.2%77 W · 148 L-19.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed NRG48c248.51$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.262,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked NRG33c240.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7926037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed EYEBALLERS43c224.47$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.862860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed NRG25c223.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.752,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed NRG14c213.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2217444.3%77 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed EYEBALLERS46c210.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5969635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed EYEBALLERS48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9536749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ff…6431backed EYEBALLERS58c201.32$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2523165.8%152 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed NRG52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed EYEBALLERS44c199.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11223851.7%123 W · 115 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked NRG52c199.43$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5249849.6%247 W · 251 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0311…f80ebacked NRG26c196.84$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5818126.5%48 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed NRG21c191.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6944748.1%215 W · 232 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39e2…040dbacked EYEBALLERS54c180.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.710045%45 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked EYEBALLERS50c173.57$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7941640.6%169 W · 247 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked EYEBALLERS48c172.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.499856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked EYEBALLERS49c170.57$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.465658.9%33 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c5…0b0abacked NRG24c169.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.513046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked EYEBALLERS49c168.53$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.493946.2%18 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba2d…2f32backed EYEBALLERS42c162.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.22785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick41cpaid+110.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed EYEBALLERS44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8450947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked NRG40c148.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3919540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed NRG46c146.79$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7422252.7%117 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94c6…40babacked NRG23c145.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed EYEBALLERS51c143.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9951755.9%289 W · 228 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed EYEBALLERS72c136.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2427657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked NRG29c129.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8238858.2%226 W · 162 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.