TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Monteof TheMongolz, Monte
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$440,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$471,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked TheMongolz60c33,924$20,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,350.2221655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Monte52c20,556$10,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,918.6141040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Monte40c15,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.9533043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed TheMongolz60c13,650$8,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,228.8237646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed TheMongolz51c13,103$6,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,683.993122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked TheMongolz49c12,766$6,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,222.175641.1%23 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Monte77c12,000$9,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.2950054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Monte40c12,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Monte40c10,501$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300.875444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Monte41c9,900$4,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8413351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed TheMongolz22c8,912$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.6735054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Monte56c7,041$3,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.521251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed TheMongolz21c6,400$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.5410452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked TheMongolz45c5,586$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.532441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Monte40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz30c4,439$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.431,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked TheMongolz4c4,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16032832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Monte55c3,749$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.3187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked TheMongolz41c3,672$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49420041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Monte75c3,138$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.972,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a13…4d34backed TheMongolz27c3,086$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.7411838.1%45 W · 73 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed TheMongolz60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a7…9631backed TheMongolz40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed TheMongolz38c3,000$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.9945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TheMongolz38c2,721$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.995,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Monte73c2,682$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.982,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed TheMongolz42c2,600$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.611149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed Monte72c2,588$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.497548%36 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz56c2,588$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.2576058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Monte72c2,512$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.111,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed TheMongolz60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9517062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Monte40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5005565.5%36 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed TheMongolz27c2,428$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.6221135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Monte42c2,331$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.4321854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Monte44c2,238$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.0535940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Monte44c2,220$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.951,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed TheMongolz48c2,060$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.85459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Monte40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20010058%58 W · 42 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed TheMongolz39c2,000$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.432,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked TheMongolz42c1,939$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.3734559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed TheMongolz60c1,822$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.1142651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Monte51c1,810$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.541,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed TheMongolz39c1,787$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TheMongolz34c1,761$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.581,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed TheMongolz58c1,673$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.6711949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TheMongolz29c1,668$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Monte41c1,575$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.171,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed Monte63c1,506$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.52867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed TheMongolz35c1,500$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5186354%34 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Monte39c1,366$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.792,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked TheMongolz32c1,341$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.093,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…d1f4backed TheMongolz60c1,330$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7982744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked TheMongolz60c1,300$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed TheMongolz60c1,300$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78015251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked TheMongolz32c1,289$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.4339970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz58c1,288$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.345,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed TheMongolz22c1,267$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.17546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz29c1,218$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.111,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed TheMongolz49c1,212$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.789443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked TheMongolz32c1,200$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38720944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Monte51c1,200$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.9932346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Monte60c1,158$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.3912759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f4d…09febacked Monte79c1,100$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2312540%10 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked TheMongolz31c1,084$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2940253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked Monte68c1,064$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.986647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed TheMongolz60c1,017$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed TheMongolz26c1,010$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2119659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked TheMongolz24c1,008$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3940950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed TheMongolz1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93df…7306backed Monte79c999.98$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.993253.1%17 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked TheMongolz47c985.94$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.8712642.9%54 W · 72 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed TheMongolz52c985.21$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.4235953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed TheMongolz35c983$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1745646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Monte68c975.79$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.652,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed TheMongolz58c967.12$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.9326344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed TheMongolz33c918.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012535.2%44 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Monte74c892.54$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.436,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed TheMongolz59c887.94$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.888947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked TheMongolz48c854$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9215646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Monte61c850$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.59158.2%53 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Monte66c831.59$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.521,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked TheMongolz60c750$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45035460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked TheMongolz24c714.66$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.484,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed TheMongolz61c670$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.712651.6%65 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked TheMongolz29c643.43$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7114037.9%53 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30c…a7a7backed TheMongolz50c631.64$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.823540%14 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed TheMongolz47c610.64$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28717146.2%79 W · 92 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Monte61c600$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7119150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Monte43c581$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.177250%36 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed TheMongolz48c580.32$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6e…4018backed TheMongolz19c578.95$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103511.4%4 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-72.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5dd…642abacked TheMongolz43c556.67$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked TheMongolz38c547.62$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.732,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed TheMongolz28c547.39$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.894,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Monte39c547.03$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.631,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed TheMongolz48c545.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0713550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked TheMongolz33c533.6$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.342,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2fd…5dabbacked TheMongolz20c514.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.59746.4%45 W · 52 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a9e…a24bbacked Monte64c513.95$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.075188.2%45 W · 6 L+12.9wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+40.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed TheMongolz46c508.23$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7952750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.