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Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Karmine Corp, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,161 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a4c…1f30backed Natus Vincere43c13,917$6,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,035.4316356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Karmine Corp57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.9967552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere42c6,441$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.331,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Natus Vincere42c6,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9621144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Karmine Corp57c4,021$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7221,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Natus Vincere50c3,364$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68259854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Karmine Corp57c2,027$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.7817647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Karmine Corp57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9647455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Karmine Corp50c1,891$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.3838148%183 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Natus Vincere55c1,555$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.0514949%73 W · 76 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Karmine Corp58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301,81339.1%709 W · 1,104 L-30.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Karmine Corp57c1,381$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.2830251.3%155 W · 147 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Karmine Corp57c1,141$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.632437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-39.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Karmine Corp49c1,086$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.091,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Karmine Corp58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.4810049%49 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Karmine Corp58c1,022$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0752062.3%324 W · 196 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Karmine Corp47c800$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.022,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Karmine Corp50c710.65$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.3312639.7%50 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Natus Vincere45c548.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24610938.5%42 W · 67 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere14c539$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.121,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…0bffbacked Karmine Corp58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2422532.4%73 W · 152 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Natus Vincere42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21017438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Karmine Corp58c440$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.848243.2%208 W · 274 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked Karmine Corp58c418.97$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9716858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Karmine Corp69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1c…9bb3backed Karmine Corp51c379.11$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8115956%89 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Karmine Corp57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.537640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…cd9dbacked Karmine Corp58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8322761.7%140 W · 87 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Natus Vincere44c309.02$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8821944.3%97 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e3…c540backed Natus Vincere33c303$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0915146.4%70 W · 81 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Karmine Corp56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13268049%333 W · 347 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Natus Vincere32c270$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31095.5%6 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed Karmine Corp57c265$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9557151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Natus Vincere43c258.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5286144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Karmine Corp58c255.33$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2444046.4%204 W · 236 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Karmine Corp71c249.25$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.069966.7%66 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Karmine Corp60c248.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7763458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8b…c9ccbacked Karmine Corp60c248.36$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3610851.9%56 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere39c213.69$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.341,11748.8%545 W · 572 L+40.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Karmine Corp57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8660538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Karmine Corp50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003959%23 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8701…8147backed Karmine Corp58c189.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Karmine Corp55c184.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9614448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Natus Vincere31c159.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4617610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere27c159.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.072,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Karmine Corp57c158.74$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2624650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Karmine Corp58c155.34$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3424453.3%130 W · 114 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x633f…2104backed Karmine Corp58c154.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.892387%20 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8edb…d34dbacked Natus Vincere43c136.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.73221.9%7 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Karmine Corp58c134.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4218852.7%99 W · 89 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Karmine Corp58c131.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0365563.2%414 W · 241 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc7…fc33backed Karmine Corp76c125$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010055%55 W · 45 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf671…3dd7backed Karmine Corp59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.243348.7%211 W · 222 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Natus Vincere42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.462949.9%314 W · 315 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Karmine Corp50c114.88$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.447841%32 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Natus Vincere32c108$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.926237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea69…0a9bbacked Karmine Corp58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.455154.9%28 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Natus Vincere34c101.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1732755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Natus Vincere41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120239.6%80 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Karmine Corp58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4275738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Natus Vincere39c98.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.521,39944.9%628 W · 771 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeab…fd91backed Natus Vincere42c95.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed Karmine Corp58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.213161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Natus Vincere33c83.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3112040%48 W · 72 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe45e…b135backed Karmine Corp56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.28237.8%31 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511d…3633backed Karmine Corp66c75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.516456.1%92 W · 72 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Karmine Corp50c57.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.824935.3%88 W · 161 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Karmine Corp58c52.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0858755.4%325 W · 262 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Karmine Corp57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.537650%188 W · 188 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Karmine Corp57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.535546.8%166 W · 189 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc420…2badbacked Karmine Corp61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1822147.1%104 W · 117 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20cf…e421backed Natus Vincere43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a20…ae0fbacked Karmine Corp80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.58463.1%53 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Karmine Corp57c35.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0812558.4%73 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b9…6b86backed Natus Vincere44c34.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.215945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Karmine Corp59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9442055.2%232 W · 188 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Natus Vincere42c33.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick34cpaid-71.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed Natus Vincere43c25.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1139445.2%178 W · 216 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Karmine Corp58c24.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.582,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee6b…e9d8backed Karmine Corp65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720057%114 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.