MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x625f60cd5edebf4819d747fe1a367cf499ef9f438495f9c546ecf85c05a78c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x435c…170fbacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 8,882$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,217.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 7,664$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 3,024$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 1,911$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 1,486$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,040$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 800$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 614.3$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 539.47$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 440$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 402.52$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.76 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 235.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 228.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.88 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 198.54$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 170$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 143.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb85…f0a4backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 115.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 67.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 63.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…4bb6backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 47.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…dbf9backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 38.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…90e5backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 31.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…cc49backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 31.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…572dbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…c58dbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…b0c6backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…11dabacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 28.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…17f5backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…2e3bbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…02dcbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 24.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…d817backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…ccffbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.