MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11acb7ed15881f3f3e3c7f2ad40b8392d88eaca73c8ddc7660c1e48613e80238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 53c | 1,172$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.87 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.77 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 45c | 850$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 771.98$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.39 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 50c | 702.23$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.27 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 51c | 467.32$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 50c | 375$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…6d33backed No | 49c | 214.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed No | 48c | 208.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed No | 48c | 208.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 66c | 200.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 52c | 199.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 46c | 121.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 51c | 105.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 48c | 103.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7757…b165backed Yes | 57c | 86.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 43c | 62.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Yes | 57c | 37.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…6a7ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 35.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 53c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.