TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa39a…1246backed Chicago Cubs63c2,031$1,273 inLost-$1,273.528258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants39c852$332 inWon+$519.7210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants36c500$180 inWon+$3209,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants35c452.77$158 inWon+$294.311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c59…ad51backed Chicago Cubs23c217.39$50 inLost-$5021545.6%98 W · 117 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants79c206.48$162 inWon+$44.158,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants27c111$30 inWon+$81.365,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf041…c43bbacked Chicago Cubs76c58.36$44 inLost-$44.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants39c42$16 inWon+$25.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc08c…4b12backed San Francisco Giants36c41.67$15 inWon+$26.675945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x291e…2421backed Chicago Cubs77c28$21 inLost-$21.461154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cee…7599backed Chicago Cubs76c25.89$20 inLost-$19.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Chicago Cubs76c25.2$19 inLost-$19.11,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.