MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae7d6bc4f1b1b19145ba0b39d08398d8ad64958c1b390d2126ae2215d5f45be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 51c | 7,526$3,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,687.85 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 40c | 5,001$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 3,975$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 57c | 2,874$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.85 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 45c | 2,850$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.49 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 2,697$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 2,264$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 2,056$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Under | 62c | 2,008$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.92 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 55c | 999.46$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 68c | 980.37$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 735$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 60c | 719.46$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.18 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 44c | 679.21$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.47 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Over | 77c | 647.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 622.64$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 603.81$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…9a33backed Over | 44c | 545$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 68c | 455.39$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 29c | 441.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 60c | 254.24$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 42c | 211.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…6158backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 61c | 198$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 59c | 190.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 188.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 183$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 173.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 59c | 165.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…f2edbacked Under | 53c | 163.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fc…5054backed Over | 47c | 163.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 39c | 151.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 147.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 110.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 36c | 108.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 57c | 106$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392b…f9a5backed Over | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 61c | 102.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 90.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 88.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 77.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 76.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 56c | 70.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 43c | 61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Under | 59c | 52.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Under | 59c | 52.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Under | 59c | 52.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 59c | 52.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 50.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 41c | 35.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 60c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under | 37c | 27.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…8a29backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 57c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 55c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…0e06backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Under | 60c | 18.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 59c | 17.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.