MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1673d52062879ee783e8ec7272f9042f8f07effcb791bc9d8e5cadc05678f20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 3,324$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 2,291$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 41c | 1,954$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.02 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 77c | 947$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 23c | 652.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.16 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 605$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.35 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 585.71$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…9a33backed Over | 45c | 552.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 527$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 459.89$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 23c | 382.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 79c | 380.67$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Under | 49c | 334.15$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Over | 24c | 327.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.57 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.67 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 80c | 216$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 72c | 192.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 24c | 187$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Over | 41c | 171.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 76c | 152.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 24c | 98.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 25c | 91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 80c | 83.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 75.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 39c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 42c | 74.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 24c | 67.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…7c84backed Under | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 59.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Over | 41c | 50.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 26c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 46.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Under | 59c | 42.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Under | 51c | 36.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Under | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…5c01backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 55c | 23.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 50c | 22.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 56c | 22.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 21.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 58c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 59c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52c…5acabacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.