MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f1a0fc5ddc8aa0deabffb00e2f8a2947ba3b747955a1641e481e70a663db1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 58c | 3,425$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.98 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,185$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 1,606$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 814.36$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 59c | 582.63$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.21 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 350.53$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 56c | 301.4$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 53c | 288.97$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 22c | 141.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…f4f7backed Under | 17c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 60c | 96.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 44c | 93.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 44c | 93.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…8bcbbacked Over | 54c | 92.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 88.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 56c | 84.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 84.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 46c | 79.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 30c | 68.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 58c | 59.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 54.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 44c | 49.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 46c | 47.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 46c | 44.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 46c | 43.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 57c | 39.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Over | 57c | 37.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Over | 58c | 32.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 48c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 47c | 22.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.