MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51208ba563dfd509c514b9742d3ba7d9fefb3193e4e0345b34d35c61ade00636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 66c | 175,410$116,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,306.02 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 117,109$39,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,439.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 17,187$7,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,908.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 13,980$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,840.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 31c | 8,499$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,831.71 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 3,314$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 31c | 3,114$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.98 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Over | 36c | 2,802$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 2,704$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 32c | 2,592$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,657$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 1,624$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 1,324$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.87 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 31c | 1,082$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.9 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 29c | 1,015$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.73 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 29c | 947.62$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.09 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 49c | 895.92$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.92 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 65c | 725.92$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…ef53backed Over | 35c | 550.71$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 29c | 526.48$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.8 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 28c | 434$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.48 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 35c | 432$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 29c | 420.21$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 30c | 402.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.52 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 59c | 389.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.51 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 29c | 343$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.53 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 37c | 254.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.64 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 237.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 65c | 191.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 40c | 179.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 44c | 170.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 37c | 156$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 43c | 148.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 132$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 29c | 111.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 29c | 111.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Over | 29c | 111.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 106.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 51c | 104.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Over | 32c | 101.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 59c | 97.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 59c | 84.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 36c | 78.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 32c | 68.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc378…5e4cbacked Over | 64c | 51.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 29c | 51.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 41c | 45.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Under | 44c | 45.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 51c | 40.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 29c | 38.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Over | 66c | 32.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 41c | 28.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…7913backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…abc9backed Over | 64c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.