MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29a52fcc2cbc1cc03e38d4cb8e60b5321e034cca8ccd9f76f278e567aed50046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 3c | 1,375$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 72c | 1,104$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.51 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 555.49$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 28c | 532.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 496.97$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 14c | 222.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 25c | 202.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…2513backed Over | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 68c | 160.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 157$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 31c | 141.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 32c | 133.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 31c | 132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Over | 59c | 127.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 69c | 123$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 89.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 72c | 74.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 69c | 64.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 71c | 50.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 34c | 49.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…5746backed Under | 42c | 28.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 68c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 67c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 63c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.