MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x364feb19f1c9c44cc5f7234378f3ca7e4c376af43f1059ab091e2db73888475c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 5,561$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 43c | 2,340$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.81 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.58 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Under | 59c | 2,234$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 1,792$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 44c | 1,387$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.6 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 1,302$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.27 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 35c | 1,144$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.51 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 1,097$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 657$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.78 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…b244backed Under | 74c | 510$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 43c | 465.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.21 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 49c | 437.82$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.44 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 430.33$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 41c | 425.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.33 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 59c | 409.04$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 399.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 43c | 399.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 398$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.91 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 379$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 347$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 314$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.98 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 38c | 311.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 253.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 240$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 234.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Under | 24c | 220.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 212.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 206.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 204.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 192.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 152.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…c92dbacked Under | 58c | 146.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 127.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 51c | 117.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 45c | 102.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Over | 43c | 88.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 44c | 55.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Over | 44c | 54.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…6a7ebacked Under | 69c | 53.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 48c | 52.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…242bbacked Under | 58c | 49.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 42c | 44.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 48c | 44.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Under | 75c | 44.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 43c | 40.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 48c | 39.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 63c | 31.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 27.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Over | 42c | 24.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 55c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.