MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x889b8f74bf9b40c568a11fca1c711462ec8b850d9d0d19fb8525afbb83b7f6a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 1,028$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 336.13$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 328.32$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Chicago Cubs | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed San Francisco Giants | 18c | 218.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.39 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 114.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 95.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 70.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…9103backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 63.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 58.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 42.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…1df3backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 40.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 34.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 33.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…06c6backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 33.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…f775backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 32.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 32.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…c2f4backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 32.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…bba5backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 31.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e44…e563backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 31.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…b79fbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 31.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…0f04backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 31.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390e…4fb7backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 30.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 30.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…b5f5backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 29.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…6a4abacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 29.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…d33ebacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 29.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 29.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 28.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…09b8backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…8799backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 27.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…8ca5backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…f549backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…aca1backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 24.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…e8fcbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 23.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x233c…6996backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 22.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…8ba7backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 70cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…aee0backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 21.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…ec74backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 20.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…0a8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 18.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121c…b866backed Chicago Cubs | 80c | 13.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 18.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 20.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.