TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,864 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago Cubs36c10,345$3,750 inLost-$3,75024146.1%111 W · 130 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants64c7,475$4,755 inWon+$2,719.9411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435c…170fbacked Chicago Cubs37c7,185$2,651 inLost-$2,651.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed San Francisco Giants63c2,592$1,633 inWon+$959.121,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs36c1,402$505 inLost-$504.674,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants63c830.03$526 inWon+$303.768,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants63c800$508 inWon+$292.289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants63c300$189 inWon+$1116,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Chicago Cubs37c270.27$100 inLost-$10011138.7%43 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs36c81.5$29 inLost-$29.342,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants72c59.9$43 inWon+$16.775,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs29c53.82$16 inLost-$15.565,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Cubs36c53$19 inLost-$19.0880255%441 W · 361 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Chicago Cubs37c53$20 inLost-$19.6130340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed Chicago Cubs36c52.61$19 inLost-$18.945947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants66c50$33 inWon+$16.98,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants64c44.67$29 inWon+$16.031,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs28c36.32$10 inLost-$10.1912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7a…2c0abacked San Francisco Giants64c31.25$20 inWon+$11.2512257.4%70 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants78c22.73$18 inWon+$59,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089f…f599backed San Francisco Giants64c16.69$11 inWon+$6.012458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants64c15.75$10 inWon+$5.671,48163.5%940 W · 541 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.