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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs paiN - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$731,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$783,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed paiN36c61,877$22,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,071.715645.5%71 W · 85 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Natus Vincere66c45,647$30,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,504.945972.9%43 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+36.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed paiN30c41,084$12,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,416.3519642.3%83 W · 113 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Natus Vincere76c20,900$15,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,01635854.2%194 W · 164 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Natus Vincere76c20,000$15,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.9779752.7%420 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere76c19,186$14,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,604.5721949.3%108 W · 111 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed paiN25c19,158$4,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,761.114219%8 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Natus Vincere49c12,000$5,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,141.295137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Natus Vincere76c10,000$7,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.6226954.6%147 W · 122 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked paiN24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40023330.9%72 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere76c9,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1601,75647.3%830 W · 926 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked paiN19c8,574$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.194311.6%5 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed paiN37c7,124$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.7189748.6%436 W · 461 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed paiN46c7,041$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.8520349.3%100 W · 103 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed paiN78c6,858$5,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,323.7981045.9%372 W · 438 L-24.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd2…6657backed Natus Vincere75c6,669$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.762157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed paiN25c6,539$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.555444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere69c6,282$4,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.1891147.5%433 W · 478 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed paiN34c6,175$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.511136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed paiN23c6,047$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.2635031.1%109 W · 241 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed paiN24c5,981$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4339745.4%44 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed paiN27c5,953$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.233056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Natus Vincere70c5,762$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.8150564.8%327 W · 178 L+59.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa4f0…b287backed Natus Vincere34c5,564$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,671.871816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Natus Vincere60c5,546$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,218.7114357.3%82 W · 61 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4097…9397backed paiN24c5,330$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.644650%23 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere28c5,274$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,776.1340346.7%188 W · 215 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere65c5,058$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.631,07849.5%534 W · 544 L+42.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74b7…8b0bbacked paiN24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Natus Vincere56c4,926$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.6946057.2%263 W · 197 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere39c4,912$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.821,70447%801 W · 903 L-29.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Natus Vincere66c4,212$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.412352.8%65 W · 58 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked paiN33c3,935$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.193645.3%424 W · 512 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed paiN7c3,862$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542,73230.3%829 W · 1,903 L-120.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked paiN1c3,712$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1271723.7%170 W · 547 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed paiN43c3,333$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.942,56143.2%1,107 W · 1,454 L+42.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked Natus Vincere68c3,264$2,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.323348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked paiN37c3,239$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.991,28247.3%607 W · 675 L+22.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed paiN24c3,103$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.7237954.9%208 W · 171 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Natus Vincere67c3,003$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.872245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked paiN50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Natus Vincere25c2,836$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.072445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5045…914abacked Natus Vincere73c2,791$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.5611844.9%53 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed paiN33c2,720$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.4856832.4%184 W · 384 L-27.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Natus Vincere76c2,526$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.314854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked paiN13c2,388$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.893,70629.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L-297.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5b0…180dbacked paiN35c2,320$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8122025%5 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked paiN36c2,200$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.3976945.3%348 W · 421 L-23.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked paiN25c2,197$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.255253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Natus Vincere17c2,161$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.436036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked paiN24c2,115$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.8713250%66 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed paiN62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24012239.3%48 W · 74 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed paiN24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9917838.2%68 W · 110 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere76c1,996$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.1478457.3%449 W · 335 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked paiN24c1,887$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.8859134.7%205 W · 386 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Natus Vincere73c1,840$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.829647%139 W · 157 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed paiN51c1,762$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.2240768.1%277 W · 130 L+28.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa048…f2b5backed Natus Vincere77c1,683$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed paiN35c1,640$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57111327.4%31 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd2…9120backed Natus Vincere77c1,597$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.42268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed paiN44c1,587$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.295,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9674…1302backed Natus Vincere55c1,583$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.439150.5%46 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked paiN13c1,526$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.544,02236.4%1,466 W · 2,556 L-208.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked Natus Vincere33c1,524$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.244057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec5a…cd56backed paiN64c1,500$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96312543.2%54 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,44433.4%482 W · 962 L+39.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.9898840.7%402 W · 586 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed paiN23c1,395$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4124253.3%129 W · 113 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed paiN39c1,384$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5371,50239.1%587 W · 915 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere38c1,305$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.481,81959%1,074 W · 745 L+105.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Natus Vincere54c1,297$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.877441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked paiN24c1,292$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.082245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Natus Vincere61c1,290$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Natus Vincere16c1,269$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.287844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Natus Vincere30c1,267$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4858…3dd3backed paiN24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002020%4 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked paiN35c1,238$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.2823240.5%94 W · 138 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere49c1,228$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.3482851.9%430 W · 398 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Natus Vincere51c1,203$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.0548046.3%222 W · 258 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ae…46d7backed Natus Vincere73c1,200$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3242445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked paiN46c1,198$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55015345.1%69 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked paiN37c1,196$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.014,87943.4%2,116 W · 2,763 L-93.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbf…1a6bbacked Natus Vincere69c1,184$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.391154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed paiN22c1,165$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.38133.3%27 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed paiN19c1,128$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3263234.7%219 W · 413 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed paiN24c1,100$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natus Vincere72c1,065$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.481,98442.2%838 W · 1,146 L-74.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Natus Vincere76c1,053$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.6327653.3%147 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed Natus Vincere40c1,044$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.3717850%89 W · 89 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31b0…69b3backed paiN24c1,042$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked paiN59c1,041$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61055137.2%205 W · 346 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x046a…0701backed Natus Vincere39c1,034$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.972462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Natus Vincere77c1,012$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6718845.2%85 W · 103 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aee…637abacked Natus Vincere37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6304461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked paiN2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022721.6%49 W · 178 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed paiN47c971.2$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.478667.4%58 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked paiN52c963.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x455e…f7f9backed paiN79c936.52$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Natus Vincere69c934.45$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.878552.9%45 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked paiN34c911.1$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.575536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.