CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6440f5d6e85537ac41caf0b9af0c0f573a666e9b06bb3a1aae9118974b0a3b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 3DMAXof 3DMAX, SemperFi Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $401,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $429,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked SemperFi Esports | 13c | 120,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked SemperFi Esports | 14c | 73,148$10,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,012.54 | 136 | 33.1%45 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…d43dbacked SemperFi Esports | 14c | 48,850$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,750.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 18,971$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.49 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SemperFi Esports | 12c | 9,990$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.64 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd87…ac38backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 8,689$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.58 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c45…0ac6backed SemperFi Esports | 18c | 7,041$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed SemperFi Esports | 10c | 5,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 5,459$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.46 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked SemperFi Esports | 11c | 4,400$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked SemperFi Esports | 13c | 3,709$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 2,809$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.96 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed SemperFi Esports | 9c | 2,500$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed SemperFi Esports | 16c | 2,072$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.78 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 2,018$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.1 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed SemperFi Esports | 17c | 1,916$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked SemperFi Esports | 9c | 1,750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 1,724$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 392 | 39.8%156 W · 236 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked SemperFi Esports | 12c | 1,457$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed SemperFi Esports | 16c | 1,350$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 552 | 36.2%200 W · 352 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 1,300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…b656backed SemperFi Esports | 1c | 1,088$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed 3DMAX | 79c | 1,046$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.03 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked SemperFi Esports | 12c | 1,016$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe137…a117backed SemperFi Esports | 15c | 1,012$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 1,009$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 786 | 39.4%310 W · 476 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…70cdbacked SemperFi Esports | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 999.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 977$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked SemperFi Esports | 12c | 809.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed SemperFi Esports | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed SemperFi Esports | 16c | 633.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…44c3backed SemperFi Esports | 17c | 554.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed SemperFi Esports | 17c | 500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed SemperFi Esports | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 241 | 39%94 W · 147 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed SemperFi Esports | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 342 | 35.4%121 W · 221 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked SemperFi Esports | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…cabcbacked SemperFi Esports | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766c…bb56backed SemperFi Esports | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked SemperFi Esports | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked SemperFi Esports | 5c | 299$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…ca76backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 290.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…2ccbbacked SemperFi Esports | 17c | 286.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…eda0backed SemperFi Esports | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked SemperFi Esports | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 199.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed SemperFi Esports | 15c | 193.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…bbfabacked SemperFi Esports | 15c | 164.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed SemperFi Esports | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked SemperFi Esports | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…5709backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…0e63backed SemperFi Esports | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked SemperFi Esports | 18c | 114$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed SemperFi Esports | 15c | 88.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked SemperFi Esports | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…d47dbacked SemperFi Esports | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 608 | 57.2%348 W · 260 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed SemperFi Esports | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 65.1%110 W · 59 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…f339backed SemperFi Esports | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed SemperFi Esports | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed 3DMAX | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…2278backed 3DMAX | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 55 | 74.5%41 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1this page
- Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs SemperFi Esports - Map 1 Winner3DMAX won
- Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs SemperFi Esports - Map 2 Winner3DMAX won
- Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs SemperFi Esports (+1.5)3DMAX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.