TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool D: Israel vs. Nicaragua

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Israelof Israel, Nicaragua
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$343,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,587 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Israel55c235,908$129,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,491.482231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nicaragua45c105,080$47,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,284.6623455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Nicaragua45c79,570$35,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,80670%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Israel55c36,143$19,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,431.4446547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Nicaragua45c32,181$14,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,440.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Nicaragua45c25,487$11,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,468.541338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Nicaragua47c13,864$6,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,447.355442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Nicaragua47c13,584$6,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,357.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Nicaragua45c10,886$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,879.361741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Israel55c8,159$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,673.121752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Israel55c5,625$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5509035.6%32 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Israel55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Israel56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Nicaragua45c3,330$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.4910930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Nicaragua46c2,870$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nicaragua44c2,860$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.591,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Israel55c2,833$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.691,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Nicaragua45c2,382$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0722040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Nicaragua45c2,130$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.56145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Israel70c2,030$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.4623036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nicaragua48c1,850$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8882147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe792…80bcbacked Nicaragua55c1,819$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Nicaragua47c1,800$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8462227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Israel56c1,406$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Israel56c1,021$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.682,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Nicaragua44c1,011$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.725251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Israel47c1,007$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.9414328.7%41 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Israel55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.091338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Nicaragua31c801.62$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.419021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Nicaragua54c793$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1320548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Nicaragua45c775.36$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013345.9%61 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8727…8c3abacked Nicaragua45c666.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Nicaragua45c655.56$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29514945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Nicaragua46c645$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.732152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Israel50c627.27$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.5755541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Nicaragua48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30044348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Nicaragua47c616$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5249450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nicaragua34c573$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.261,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1394…b8b6backed Nicaragua45c508.09$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed Nicaragua44c472.13$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Israel46c472$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0984049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9162…162cbacked Israel53c469.12$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.122060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nicaragua44c420.55$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.311,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Nicaragua4c420$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Israel72c417.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nicaragua36c406.6$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Israel55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1808151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Israel60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1607953.2%42 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2596…fd5abacked Israel59c380.45$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2818…04a2backed Israel56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick68cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Nicaragua13c355.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.252242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed Israel68c334.99$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Israel53c307.79$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.661,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nicaragua45c292.53$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.391,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Israel73c284$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3147745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Nicaragua44c280.47$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Israel69c257.09$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.061,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72bc…b24ebacked Nicaragua48c250$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.12343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Israel56c235.46$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9469447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Israel55c226.3$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8450954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Israel45c222.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nicaragua46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Nicaragua48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.82560%15 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Nicaragua49c203.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013461.9%83 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…7f81backed Nicaragua54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe304…4b0bbacked Israel55c200$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.51475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+42.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Israel53c186.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9318048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Nicaragua29c181.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.061233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Israel56c180$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.431052.6%163 W · 147 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Israel56c178.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.833868.4%26 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+27.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Israel56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Nicaragua45c177.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8046557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked Israel73c176.35$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd08c…8a89backed Nicaragua45c166.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Israel55c146.02$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1740846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nicaragua40c141.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.666,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Israel66c141$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.927750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9450…d9e6backed Nicaragua44c136.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.931850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Israel42c133.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.12524%6 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Nicaragua45c124$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.812350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453f…6b3bbacked Nicaragua46c111.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab0…e0f5backed Nicaragua45c108.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.756063.3%38 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Israel54c103.78$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3712761.4%78 W · 49 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Nicaragua39c102.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.312259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Israel37c101.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.381275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+62.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Israel63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3765651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Israel20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x838a…0815backed Israel55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Israel56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccc5…ada3backed Israel56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e3…c0bbbacked Israel56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x946d…0e7dbacked Nicaragua30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Nicaragua53c99.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-56.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Israel59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9910541%43 W · 62 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4342…5797backed Nicaragua63c92.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.358960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e36…3fd0backed Israel20c92.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+233.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Israel43c89.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.831,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked Israel56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.293357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Israel58c88.05$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0534264.3%220 W · 122 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Nicaragua45c86.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.07650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.