Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x664b795687dc0974dc43b1de18c61dae278e7da35751f1ecbfc812a1d5ea4952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 3c | 12,144$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 766.1$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…b793backed No | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 402.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20f…6ccebacked No | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 75c | 373.17$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 49c | 355.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 47c | 351.69$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 57c | 300.74$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 279.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 50c | 264.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 251.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 57c | 222.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 72c | 174.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 172.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…d963backed Yes | 66c | 166.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…e353backed No | 50c | 161.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 151.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 127.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 49c | 118.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 114.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 111.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 110.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 27c | 109.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 105.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 105.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 52c | 93.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 89.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 59c | 88.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 87.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 86.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 85.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 29c | 82.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…451abacked Yes | 48c | 79.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 47c | 79.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 76.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…1851backed Yes | 48c | 73.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5211…6cd3backed Yes | 48c | 71.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 68.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 65.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 74c | 62.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 74c | 62.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 57c | 60.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 60.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…f8c6backed No | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 49c | 56.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 72c | 55.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 54.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 54.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 32c | 51.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 65c | 51.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 78c | 46.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 46.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 50c | 43.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 56c | 43.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 46c | 43.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 79c | 42.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 36c | 37.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 47c | 37.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…e836backed Yes | 59c | 32.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 30.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 29.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 73c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 75c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 49c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…844bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…b5a1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 59c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 78c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.