Movies · resolved market
Will Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x666dc12b744562d2cd5d0f13d6d2d080973ef339fd6076fddb4c0e5880645f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 12c | 4,719$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.15 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 4,608$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 13c | 3,576$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed No | 1c | 2,768$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 2,477$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…fc06backed No | 0c | 2,421$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 2c | 1,895$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,857$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 18c | 1,689$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…b955backed No | 1c | 1,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c1…66b8backed No | 14c | 1,548$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 1,511$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 80c | 1,502$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.23 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 9c | 1,502$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 1c | 1,404$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…457bbacked No | 14c | 1,403$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 2c | 1,361$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 1,305$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked No | 2c | 1,292$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 1,257$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed No | 16c | 1,017$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 890$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 11c | 870.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 771.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0f…f03bbacked No | 3c | 768.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 17c | 760.42$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed No | 18c | 644.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 24c | 637$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 3c | 537.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…5474backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 24c | 357$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 76c | 357$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…6182backed Yes | 80c | 330$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89a…3a7ebacked No | 4c | 320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 76c | 279$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 77c | 238$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 17c | 230$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 16c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…9ac8backed No | 16c | 191.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…c462backed No | 16c | 171.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…4f54backed No | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…9f30backed No | 14c | 139.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked No | 15c | 137.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…d647backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 39cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 119.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 108.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…ef55backed No | 14c | 103.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 19c | 102.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…cdd8backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 83.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe189…fea6backed No | 13c | 82.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…6f6ebacked No | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…174abacked Yes | 80c | 63.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…03a5backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…d461backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…ba96backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.