Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691ee5521478b6d443714a740bf53e5789d3276e72a3a9acbfc18a3c71da7e2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb5…e421backed No | 1c | 1,154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 72c | 598.44$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 77c | 545.84$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 533.3$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 20c | 475.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 24c | 379.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 69c | 345.71$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 15c | 217$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 199.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 70c | 196.48$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed Yes | 47c | 194.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 19c | 183.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 61c | 169.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed No | 19c | 161.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 20c | 156.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 19c | 145.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 22c | 133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 17c | 131.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 131.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 130.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 130.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 33c | 122.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 63c | 108.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 73c | 103.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 24c | 99.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 50c | 97.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 93.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 49c | 92.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed Yes | 78c | 90.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 90.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 67c | 84.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 64c | 84.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…b82cbacked No | 18c | 76.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 64c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0d…3b4cbacked No | 22c | 71.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed No | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…6e73backed No | 50c | 60.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 44c | 58.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 75c | 52.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed No | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 30c | 50.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed Yes | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 35c | 49.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 79c | 49.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 45.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 31c | 42.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 39c | 41.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked Yes | 64c | 38.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 67c | 38.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 62c | 37.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 41c | 35.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed Yes | 78c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 31.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 63c | 31.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…e61cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 63c | 30.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 30.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 58c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 67c | 27.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 26.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…3ae0backed Yes | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4750…bf47backed Yes | 69c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…0c71backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…f13abacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed Yes | 55c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 59c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes | 64c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…24c5backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b5…e239backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked Yes | 79c | 12.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.