Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d6a23d392248775e6f95a450679ca5f592605003c504b5a8b260129b468469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Fonseca, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Fonseca | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Fonseca | 0c | 16,775$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 264 | 55.3%146 W · 118 L | +37.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Fonseca | 0c | 5,673$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Mensik | 75c | 3,867$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.46 | 1,286 | 56.8%731 W · 555 L | -16.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 25c | 3,793$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.4 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…499cbacked Fonseca | 28c | 3,094$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.47 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Mensik | 75c | 2,500$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 579 | 49.6%287 W · 292 L | -32.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Mensik | 73c | 2,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.98 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fonseca | 15c | 1,751$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 2,899 | 39.6%1,147 W · 1,752 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fonseca | 25c | 1,447$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.37 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Mensik | 73c | 1,361$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.73 | 953 | 68.2%650 W · 303 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Mensik | 74c | 1,357$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Fonseca | 25c | 1,028$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.18 | 505 | 42.4%214 W · 291 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Mensik | 71c | 889.59$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.98 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Fonseca | 25c | 624$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 405 | 35.8%145 W · 260 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Fonseca | 33c | 538.16$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.01 | 502 | 47%236 W · 266 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Mensik | 76c | 449.07$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Fonseca | 26c | 439.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 1,054 | 50.2%529 W · 525 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Fonseca | 25c | 374.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Fonseca | 28c | 307.14$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Fonseca | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…26a6backed Fonseca | 7c | 262.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Mensik | 75c | 245$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Fonseca | 26c | 240$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Mensik | 67c | 230.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 1,742 | 50.2%875 W · 867 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Fonseca | 27c | 225.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Fonseca | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mensik | 79c | 173.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 2,442 | 50.9%1,243 W · 1,199 L | +83.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Fonseca | 26c | 172.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 440 | 43.9%193 W · 247 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Fonseca | 29c | 172.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…2fb9backed Mensik | 66c | 153.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Fonseca | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Fonseca | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 451 | 42.8%193 W · 258 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Mensik | 72c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2,286 | 42.9%980 W · 1,306 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Mensik | 74c | 142$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Fonseca | 28c | 140.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Fonseca | 34c | 139.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Fonseca | 25c | 139$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Mensik | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mensik | 68c | 133.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Fonseca | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 871 | 35.4%308 W · 563 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Fonseca | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Mensik | 71c | 104.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Mensik | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 837 | 47.6%398 W · 439 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Mensik | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Fonseca | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 362 | 61.6%223 W · 139 L | +40.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Fonseca | 31c | 99.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Fonseca | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 270 | 57.8%156 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Mensik | 73c | 94.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fonseca | 27c | 90.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Mensik | 74c | 89.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Mensik | 76c | 84.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Fonseca | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Mensik | 70c | 79.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…82b5backed Mensik | 74c | 74.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…46b9backed Fonseca | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Mensik | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…5e3dbacked Fonseca | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…d384backed Fonseca | 25c | 59.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Fonseca | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 823 | 57.1%470 W · 353 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Mensik | 74c | 58.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Fonseca | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 823 | 55.2%454 W · 369 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mensik | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mensik | 77c | 41.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked Mensik | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Mensik | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mensik | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)this page
- Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Mensik vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Mensik vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao FonsecaJakub Mensik won
- Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs FonsecaMensik won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.