Tennis · resolved market

Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c35d4dd10c7e6990aa00401bd6408d3b3678314a945f7fc3589443bafc30489

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Mensikof Mensik, Fonseca
Resolved: Jun 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,203 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd578…4d58backed Fonseca	0c	2,526$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Mensik	76c	1,806$1,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.18	332	53.6%178 W · 154 L	+21.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Fonseca	17c	1,500$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.02	477	28.1%134 W · 343 L	+18.2wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Fonseca	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Fonseca	59c	1,500$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.99	279	44.1%123 W · 156 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Mensik	41c	1,500$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$879.96	308	27.6%85 W · 223 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cea…e48ebacked Fonseca	33c	1,369$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.36	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed Fonseca	61c	1,232$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Mensik	41c	1,221$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.76	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Mensik	41c	1,201$492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$708.71	330	37.3%123 W · 207 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Fonseca	59c	1,068$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.07	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Mensik	40c	1,005$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$607.57	191	46.6%89 W · 102 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mensik	55c	709.18$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.84	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Fonseca	29c	695.17$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc5a…07b6backed Fonseca	63c	612.45$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.32	252	40.5%102 W · 150 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebb0…e116backed Fonseca	42c	600.76$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Fonseca	59c	583.12$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.04	1,865	45.6%851 W · 1,014 L	+50.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f93…eb20backed Mensik	54c	545.83$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.48	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Mensik	46c	519.12$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.12	1,566	40%627 W · 939 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fonseca	9c	489.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.09	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Fonseca	64c	468.75$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,681	50%841 W · 840 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mensik	56c	427.21$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.63	4,921	38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L	-20.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Mensik	52c	411.6$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.79	295	33.6%99 W · 196 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc905…850bbacked Fonseca	61c	410.23$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	357	55.5%198 W · 159 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Mensik	38c	371.27$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.04	4,765	47%2,238 W · 2,527 L	-82.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Mensik	37c	358$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.74	390	46.4%181 W · 209 L	-14.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Fonseca	29c	318.59$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.05	1,148	53%608 W · 540 L	+25.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Mensik	57c	317.45$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.04	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf703…541abacked Mensik	41c	292.68$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.68	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27fa…d8c4backed Mensik	44c	290.91$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.91	139	28.1%39 W · 100 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Fonseca	53c	267.45$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	347	48.1%167 W · 180 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac1…3176backed Mensik	40c	247.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.56	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Fonseca	61c	244.43$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.31	864	70%605 W · 259 L	+43.2wins	+0.05per pick	65cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5c7…5cecbacked Mensik	41c	243.9$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.9	171	38.6%66 W · 105 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Mensik	42c	233.33$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.33	589	31.1%183 W · 406 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b2…50cabacked Fonseca	35c	210.71$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.27	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…25e8backed Fonseca	58c	200.34$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.2	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Fonseca	59c	200$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mensik	57c	195$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.57	4,602	48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L	+34.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Fonseca	59c	190.97$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.9	921	38.4%354 W · 567 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Mensik	75c	189.09$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.27	80	56.3%45 W · 35 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Mensik	34c	185.97$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.83	757	48.6%368 W · 389 L	+16.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b57…263ebacked Fonseca	58c	168.52$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.74	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d1c…8408backed Fonseca	60c	165.23$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.19	190	48.4%92 W · 98 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Fonseca	57c	164.31$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.98	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a2…8613backed Fonseca	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ba…f577backed Fonseca	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	67	32.8%22 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Fonseca	59c	157.09$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.68	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…0a77backed Fonseca	44c	150$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Mensik	62c	148.7$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.78	925	48.8%451 W · 474 L	+20.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a9…5c31backed Fonseca	63c	140.41$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.36	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Mensik	41c	124.1$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.22	391	49.1%192 W · 199 L	+14.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe698…4d65backed Fonseca	53c	123.45$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mensik	51c	110.76$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.26	2,417	50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L	+78.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd729…7ef2backed Mensik	41c	102.9$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.71	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1f…7661backed Fonseca	58c	99.88$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.06	233	52.8%123 W · 110 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed Mensik	43c	93.02$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.02	287	38.3%110 W · 177 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Mensik	35c	91.31$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	87	18.4%16 W · 71 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-52%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7d…a286backed Fonseca	20c	88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Mensik	59c	85.34$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.73	1,354	43.9%595 W · 759 L	-62.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed Fonseca	43c	69.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	113	38.9%44 W · 69 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Mensik	54c	63.89$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.39	3,220	40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L	+28.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42c…51adbacked Mensik	43c	58.14$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.14	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+40%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Fonseca	65c	52.31$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2,601	46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L	+18.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4353…f5eebacked Fonseca	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed Fonseca	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Fonseca	58c	50.29$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.17	181	58.6%106 W · 75 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3b…d591backed Mensik	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	197	45.7%90 W · 107 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Fonseca	25c	47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	2,118	55.9%1,185 W · 933 L	+40.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked Mensik	41c	46.24$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.28	374	36.4%136 W · 238 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Fonseca	60c	41.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Fonseca	64c	40.63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	440	51.6%227 W · 213 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa8…645bbacked Fonseca	60c	38.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Fonseca	59c	34.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	7,049	39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L	-20.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x930b…faa6backed Fonseca	59c	33.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf8…8986backed Fonseca	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Fonseca	42c	32.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	5,416	48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L	+14.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Fonseca	46c	32.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	1,028	43.3%445 W · 583 L	-24.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Fonseca	59c	28.61$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	587	45.7%268 W · 319 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Mensik	41c	25.3$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.92	157	45.9%72 W · 85 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ec…fd3fbacked Fonseca	60c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f2…d85fbacked Fonseca	61c	21.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca99…2092backed Fonseca	62c	17.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonsecathis page
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5Under won
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao FonsecaJakub Mensik won
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)Mensik won
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)Mensik won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event