TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FULL SENSEof Rex Regum Qeon, FULL SENSE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8660…93edbacked Rex Regum Qeon50c21,945$10,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,862.9917948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed FULL SENSE50c17,694$8,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,848.449644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Rex Regum Qeon48c2,629$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.0519860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed FULL SENSE52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FULL SENSE52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72093148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FULL SENSE51c1,111$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.3955152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed FULL SENSE54c1,106$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Rex Regum Qeon50c1,101$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.539042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Rex Regum Qeon33c1,100$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.7136138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FULL SENSE50c1,034$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51263955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Rex Regum Qeon52c1,026$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.817954.4%43 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Rex Regum Qeon50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Rex Regum Qeon49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49014158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FULL SENSE51c973.35$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.141,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Rex Regum Qeon1c817.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.252025%5 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FULL SENSE62c715.33$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.151,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed FULL SENSE55c714$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.31080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+55.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Rex Regum Qeon64c703.68$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.6919751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Rex Regum Qeon48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FULL SENSE52c610.07$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6722346.6%104 W · 119 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb770…3f81backed Rex Regum Qeon20c557.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.982231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Rex Regum Qeon50c529.81$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.38640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed FULL SENSE47c518.01$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.5449255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed FULL SENSE50c517.5$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.755246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Rex Regum Qeon52c516.2$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Rex Regum Qeon77c463.39$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.0393049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed FULL SENSE32c462$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.299846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Rex Regum Qeon71c455.59$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.474161%25 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed Rex Regum Qeon48c449.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2166443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FULL SENSE58c433.99$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0160154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd098…8d1cbacked FULL SENSE55c414$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed FULL SENSE52c412.58$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.31369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed FULL SENSE38c390.51$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.7318735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed FULL SENSE43c360.36$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1426932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed FULL SENSE50c356$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.352544%11 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-35.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked FULL SENSE49c341.21$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.023540%14 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be5…4465backed Rex Regum Qeon68c322.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.631650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FULL SENSE60c318.57$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7681134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed FULL SENSE52c306.27$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked FULL SENSE44c302.04$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0630835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Rex Regum Qeon48c299.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14422449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Rex Regum Qeon50c296$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1486051.7%31 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb193…7be0backed Rex Regum Qeon44c260.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed FULL SENSE51c252.27$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3711246.4%52 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FULL SENSE48c250.52$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5262856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed FULL SENSE42c250.31$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7416144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed FULL SENSE51c233.96$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5828252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed FULL SENSE53c222.09$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3863447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Rex Regum Qeon74c219.31$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2925554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5848…56a1backed Rex Regum Qeon47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004940.8%20 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked FULL SENSE54c211.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.699145.1%41 W · 50 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Rex Regum Qeon47c211.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013043.1%56 W · 74 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Rex Regum Qeon18c210.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3269722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed FULL SENSE52c208.65$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.157855.1%43 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Rex Regum Qeon49c205.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2363…ed78backed Rex Regum Qeon49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Rex Regum Qeon49c198$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0228143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FULL SENSE54c180.51$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.411,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed FULL SENSE32c180$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0674642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Rex Regum Qeon25c177.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FULL SENSE32c167.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6177744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed FULL SENSE55c166.1$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.912640.5%51 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked FULL SENSE32c160$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0570043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x845d…aef6backed FULL SENSE48c154.79$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.443834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Rex Regum Qeon40c154.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.869742.3%41 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FULL SENSE32c153.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7157151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Rex Regum Qeon46c149.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6923733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Rex Regum Qeon71c144$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.56852.9%36 W · 32 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Rex Regum Qeon40c135.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.556235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked FULL SENSE48c133.68$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.523655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed FULL SENSE70c133$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.665937.3%22 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked FULL SENSE51c120$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.822440.2%90 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b1…df57backed FULL SENSE26c115.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.386124.6%15 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed FULL SENSE49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.452763%17 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed Rex Regum Qeon14c109.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.219439.2%76 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Rex Regum Qeon47c105$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.358349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed FULL SENSE52c104.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.381040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rex Regum Qeon48c101.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed FULL SENSE25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked FULL SENSE51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4925843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FULL SENSE46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72da…9b77backed FULL SENSE50c98.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.023844.7%17 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FULL SENSE37c89.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.861,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FULL SENSE50c88.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3126447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32e9…39a0backed Rex Regum Qeon47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FULL SENSE76c82.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Rex Regum Qeon63c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd83…d102backed FULL SENSE54c73.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.662070%14 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+57.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Rex Regum Qeon46c72.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.352128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Rex Regum Qeon52c72.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4942051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed FULL SENSE53c69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.431850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed FULL SENSE51c68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.328134.6%28 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed FULL SENSE50c65.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked FULL SENSE54c65.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0820051.5%103 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b7…52bebacked Rex Regum Qeon48c62.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.942458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked FULL SENSE48c60.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2550944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed FULL SENSE47c59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.184447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked FULL SENSE50c57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.528743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Rex Regum Qeon49c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4611442.1%48 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked FULL SENSE67c52.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.261070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.