Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf45eeafe5bf4d10dfe1b3f0e9e5b05dde84205281ba3d2e21c036dfaf77eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 1,100$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 57c | 797$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 51c | 646.37$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.56 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 42c | 592.13$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.62 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 457.79$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 63c | 414$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 366.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 357.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 44c | 341.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 196.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 49c | 190$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 51c | 185.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 35c | 185.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 171.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 63c | 164.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 155.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 47c | 148.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 73c | 139.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 134.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 38c | 134.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 131.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 131$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 54c | 131$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 31c | 115.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 43c | 111.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 77c | 110.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 100.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 52c | 99.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 34c | 93.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 43c | 89.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 82.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 46c | 74.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 70.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 74c | 68.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 64.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 27c | 59.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 57.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 56.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 55.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 54.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 49.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 47.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…653fbacked Yes | 74c | 45.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 44.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 39c | 43.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 42.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 30c | 41.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 66c | 40.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 40.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 37.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 65c | 34.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 33.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 42c | 33.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 47c | 21.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.