Lol · resolved market
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dbaea728cc656fbff029a94f5def11c3365934076edaadb9b5910145b5497ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 9c | 1,550$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 151 | 35.1%53 W · 98 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…2d49backed Yes | 68c | 1,094$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.23 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,040$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +154%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 5c | 747.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 7c | 699.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 11c | 655.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes | 79c | 499.76$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 200 | 57%114 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 8c | 475.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 463$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 343.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 310$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…6328backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 8c | 284.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 8c | 270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -14.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 226.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked No | 19c | 220$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 200.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed No | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 470 | 47.4%223 W · 247 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 177.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 149.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 181 | 21%38 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 9c | 145.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 8c | 144.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 7c | 141.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 44c | 54.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…5d6cbacked Yes | 67c | 32.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 42c | 30.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stagethis page
- Will Karmine Corp Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout StageNo won
- Will Team Liquid Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout StageNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.