NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Colts: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dcb8056d5f33ada18e83064573ea47bcb07522605f86444194d84773df93f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Under | 52c | 11,698$6,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,083 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Over | 48c | 11,252$5,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,851.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 8,160$4,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,161.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Over | 49c | 7,742$3,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.42 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 52c | 6,986$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629.28 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 50c | 5,005$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.27 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 3,554$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.65 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 3,467$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.46 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 1,972$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 1,774$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.51 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 1,426$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.47 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 52c | 939$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.91 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Over | 50c | 863.15$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.15 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 802.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Under | 52c | 675.62$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.35 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 49c | 616.89$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.38 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 583.63$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.39 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…8852backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 371.5$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Over | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Under | 52c | 219.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…e7e6backed Under | 47c | 212.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Over | 50c | 199.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…2d86backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2750…81e5backed Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4797…2382backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Over | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under | 52c | 80.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…45e0backed Under | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 49c | 60.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 43c | 47.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Under | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…3559backed Over | 50c | 38.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…88c4backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…de5bbacked Over | 49c | 35.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…4c8dbacked Under | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…806fbacked Over | 50c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 43c | 28.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20bb…f5a3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Colts: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Colts (-3.5)Falcons won
- Falcons vs. ColtsColts won
- Falcons vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Spread: Colts (-5.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.