NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f193d5f9da7479a6757f3114913a224170de8c9af57bca71c68742f63e27a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Hornets, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 52c | 12,189$6,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Wizards | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Hornets | 51c | 5,018$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.21 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Hornets | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards | 48c | 4,983$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.55 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Wizards | 48c | 4,800$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Wizards | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hornets | 1c | 1,799$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hornets | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Wizards | 46c | 1,114$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.2 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Wizards | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Hornets | 57c | 1,020$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.09 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Hornets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Hornets | 52c | 927.1$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.49 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 58c | 518.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.04 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 42c | 513.5$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Wizards | 48c | 512.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.75 | 153 | 36.6%56 W · 97 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Hornets | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 51c | 499.96$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…6413backed Wizards | 49c | 383.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.67 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Hornets | 52c | 367.77$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 52c | 287.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Hornets | 44c | 271.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Wizards | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Hornets | 7c | 252$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…e339backed Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Wizards | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Wizards | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9c…6b57backed Hornets | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards | 50c | 121.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Wizards | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…1334backed Wizards | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Wizards | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d032backed Hornets | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Wizards | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Hornets | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Hornets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Wizards | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 324 | 55.9%181 W · 143 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…b505backed Wizards | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Wizards | 49c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93df…cd6ebacked Wizards | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…0ddcbacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Hornets (-9.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. HornetsHornets won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.