TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Furman Paladins vs. Mercer Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mercer Bearsof Furman Paladins, Mercer Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Furman Paladins39c15,417$5,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,968.0489645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb729…4e2ebacked Furman Paladins40c8,754$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5008544.7%38 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mercer Bears60c6,038$3,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.8812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mercer Bears61c5,194$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.4790645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Mercer Bears62c4,194$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.721,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mercer Bears58c3,400$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.775,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Furman Paladins42c3,243$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.7624444.7%109 W · 135 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mercer Bears54c3,191$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.883,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Mercer Bears60c2,504$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.761,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Mercer Bears58c2,153$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.842,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Furman Paladins44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.9211347.8%54 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mercer Bears59c1,178$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.955,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mercer Bears64c1,050$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.461,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Mercer Bears60c804$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.261,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Mercer Bears61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3124250%21 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Mercer Bears60c581.34$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.082,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Furman Paladins41c566.32$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.991,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Mercer Bears60c499.37$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.4181453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Furman Paladins40c460$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.937142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Furman Paladins37c441.97$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.961,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mercer Bears60c438$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.250548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Mercer Bears60c365.75$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.37343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mercer Bears60c355.54$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.534,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Mercer Bears57c355.16$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7744146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Mercer Bears63c314.39$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8299848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Furman Paladins34c310.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.411,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Furman Paladins40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Mercer Bears63c296$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3823149.8%115 W · 116 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mercer Bears74c284$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.021,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mercer Bears64c261.35$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.353,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Mercer Bears42c253.78$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.792,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Mercer Bears60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10021050%105 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Mercer Bears40c248.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.541,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Mercer Bears54c247$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.914643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mercer Bears58c239.73$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.061,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mercer Bears61c228$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9291848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Furman Paladins49c215.24$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.257746.8%36 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Furman Paladins39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Mercer Bears57c199.96$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9831537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Furman Paladins39c190$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.13,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Mercer Bears56c182.26$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6268254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Furman Paladins39c155.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4594036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Furman Paladins42c116.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.214,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x372d…a119backed Furman Paladins38c102.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.724654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Furman Paladins12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.922,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Furman Paladins43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Furman Paladins43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4321449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed Mercer Bears62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386657.6%38 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Furman Paladins45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Furman Paladins44c97.86$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1993447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Furman Paladins38c94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.728939.3%35 W · 54 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Mercer Bears63c87.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4687047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Furman Paladins48c86.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2722730.4%69 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d59…e0edbacked Furman Paladins23c85.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95d…6a82backed Mercer Bears59c82.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.761855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mercer Bears62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Mercer Bears49c72.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.494930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Furman Paladins43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.16648.5%32 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Mercer Bears51c61.73$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1293247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Furman Paladins42c60.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.842,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Furman Paladins39c58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6293941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca3…ac80backed Furman Paladins44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Mercer Bears80c54.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8838343.6%167 W · 216 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e86…0979backed Furman Paladins46c50.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.621540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1afdbacked Mercer Bears72c50.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.066861.8%42 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Furman Paladins43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac3f…1966backed Furman Paladins43c48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6425152.6%132 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Furman Paladins46c46.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.431,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed Furman Paladins43c41.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188940.4%36 W · 53 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Furman Paladins51c39.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.970349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Furman Paladins43c35.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x512a…0b6ebacked Mercer Bears60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Mercer Bears62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.464658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mercer Bears59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.412,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Mercer Bears57c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.043154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Mercer Bears62c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.265261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Furman Paladins39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.144626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Mercer Bears60c25.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.281,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mercer Bears48c25.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.091,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Furman Paladins44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.056549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf12d…7350backed Mercer Bears53c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.871553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Mercer Bears62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Mercer Bears61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4135650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.