Fifa International · resolved market
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d5782ba224e515494f5a6907d8b64a868e61c6e7a402e3b1227e2dacd0b424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 77c | 9,302$7,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.85 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 76c | 3,827$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.89 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 20c | 3,479$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.82 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 22c | 3,306$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.23 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 24c | 2,950$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 350 | 36.3%127 W · 223 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 77c | 1,292$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.79 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…6ffebacked Yes | 27c | 1,250$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 76c | 1,084$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.59 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 11c | 1,015$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa8…ea63backed Yes | 22c | 942.27$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 25c | 784.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 70c | 751.51$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.81 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…5442backed Yes | 25c | 402.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 314 | 35.7%112 W · 202 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 78c | 354.25$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…4d84backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Yes | 25c | 304$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked Yes | 23c | 260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…d26abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…b7f1backed Yes | 31c | 130.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 291 | 38.5%112 W · 179 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…992abacked Yes | 24c | 103.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfd…038bbacked No | 64c | 100.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 364 | 23.6%86 W · 278 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 78c | 91.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…56f1backed Yes | 33c | 91.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 21c | 91.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 213 | 62%132 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…0c70backed Yes | 28c | 88.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 272 | 42.3%115 W · 157 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…aca3backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0734…fb8dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Yes | 24c | 63.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…6977backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…cbe9backed Yes | 25c | 60.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 23c | 59.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 362 | 50%181 W · 181 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 35c | 57.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 22.6%35 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…b904backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked No | 76c | 52.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Yes | 24c | 51.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…0736backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 315 | 43.5%137 W · 178 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…7483backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 73c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 190 | 64.2%122 W · 68 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9176backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 151 | 77.5%117 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 75c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 377 | 47.7%180 W · 197 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rafael Leão: 1+ goalsthis page
- Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goalsNo won
- Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goalsNo won
- Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assistsNo won
- Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shotsNo won
- Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ante Budimir: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ante Budimir: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ante Budimir: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ante Budimir: 2+ shotsYes won
- Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shotsYes won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shotsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shotsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shotsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shotsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shotsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goalsYes won
- Igor Matanović: 2+ goalsNo won
- Igor Matanović: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Perišić: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ivan Perišić: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ivan Perišić: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ivan Perišić: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ivan Perišić: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ shotsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ goals + assistsNo won
- João Félix: 3+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rafael Leão: 2+ goalsNo won
- Rafael Leão: 3+ goalsNo won
- Toni Fruk: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.