TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$920,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$809,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $920,921 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c188,375$363 inLost-$362.81978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes0c69,664$218 inLost-$218.135313.2%7 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed Yes0c57,345$118 inLost-$118.49442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c17,000$55 inLost-$55994%4 W · 95 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c15,544$60 inLost-$60.242130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost-$45563.6%2 W · 54 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-94.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1015219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost-$16730%0 W · 73 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$20646.3%4 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f4…7633backed Yes0c4,500$14 inLost-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes1c1,377$18 inLost-$185628.6%16 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+62.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,263$12 inLost-$11.611,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost-$208219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.