NBA · resolved market
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54fe3865c59f0ba109f2f8b91d3d0943690e4940504265fa278f16da5406fd9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,290,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $503,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,290,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 163,920$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.39 | 197 | 8.6%17 W · 180 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 73,680$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.96 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 54,345$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 21,328$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,263$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…3449backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…c036backed Yes | 0c | 12,507$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 73 | 0%0 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…33e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…1753backed Yes | 0c | 7,573$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa040…b13bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc2…a91abacked Yes | 0c | 6,382$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2a…7401backed Yes | 0c | 6,333$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…fc09backed Yes | 0c | 6,333$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…8d47backed Yes | 0c | 6,326$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd34…d2abbacked Yes | 0c | 6,313$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…0387backed Yes | 0c | 6,173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…aefbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…ee2abacked Yes | 0c | 5,876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818a…a0c3backed Yes | 0c | 5,876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…11afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…cd2fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…1a91backed Yes | 0c | 5,876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…3d71backed Yes | 0c | 5,808$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5d…409fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,649$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc272…b404backed Yes | 0c | 5,649$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…5c72backed Yes | 0c | 5,649$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…7a18backed Yes | 0c | 5,618$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…fd67backed Yes | 0c | 5,618$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…d526backed Yes | 0c | 5,618$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…c8d2backed Yes | 0c | 5,618$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1c…580ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…006bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…8758backed Yes | 0c | 4,279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050b…61e5backed Yes | 0c | 4,279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…650abacked Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eae…b1d0backed Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…2f07backed Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cb…01d5backed Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…067dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbb…9572backed Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…c0dbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…519abacked Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…9239backed Yes | 0c | 4,203$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…a11bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…18a2backed Yes | 0c | 4,121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…7301backed Yes | 0c | 4,028$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a4…2548backed Yes | 0c | 4,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…7fe3backed Yes | 0c | 4,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f6…2ea9backed Yes | 0c | 3,829$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…05f0backed Yes | 0c | 3,829$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…fde3backed Yes | 0c | 3,829$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbe…2cd7backed Yes | 0c | 3,821$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bf…d4eabacked Yes | 0c | 3,821$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c6…8a0fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,765$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…ba34backed Yes | 0c | 3,703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…5de7backed Yes | 0c | 3,703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…3dbbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cde…34b8backed Yes | 0c | 3,526$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…ead4backed Yes | 0c | 3,442$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e5…2ce0backed Yes | 0c | 3,432$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -80%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 3,082$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…20f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 12c | 666.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 201.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring?this page
- Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Anfernee Simons lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will De’Aaron Fox lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will LeBron James lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring?No won
- Will another player lead the NBA in scoring?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.