TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Bulls, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,615,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,593,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,615,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 795 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x489d…f6e3backed Wizards1c263,486$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,287.942645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Wizards33c149,725$49,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,409.338750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Bulls69c133,752$92,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,917.714957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed Bulls68c98,106$67,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,970.084438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Wizards0c94,006$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.014540%18 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls67c58,224$39,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,206.442,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Wizards31c43,797$13,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,576.9429245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards30c40,431$12,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,295.061,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Wizards32c35,706$11,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,425.8438434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Bulls67c34,090$22,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,164.6221350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards25c27,639$7,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,046.212,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Wizards32c25,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0009745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards19c19,010$3,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,645.52,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8650…b8babacked Wizards31c16,437$5,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,095.472556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Wizards31c16,128$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.6728643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Wizards33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9449244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5b…8e29backed Wizards20c14,122$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,857.883063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Wizards31c13,573$4,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.3731644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls67c13,538$9,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,458.024,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Wizards6c12,144$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.2258740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Bulls69c10,860$7,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.4663746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Wizards31c10,785$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,343.3411335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Bulls69c10,651$7,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.8490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Wizards11c10,514$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.0511033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Wizards32c10,469$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,401.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Wizards0c10,400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.18820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Wizards30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Wizards33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.994856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x151e…58debacked Bulls67c9,948$6,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,282.94425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Wizards0c9,871$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3434136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Bulls67c9,000$6,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.998948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards31c8,367$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.794,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wizards30c8,266$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.761,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Wizards31c7,742$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40072450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Wizards30c7,235$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.0520744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards13c6,408$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.583,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Wizards1c6,307$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.577211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards26c5,953$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.68,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls78c5,539$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.611,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Wizards31c5,360$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.0224841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Wizards30c5,075$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.55747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Wizards31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5501,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bulls68c4,946$3,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Wizards31c4,405$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.5338143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0327…1390backed Bulls67c4,309$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards22c4,251$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.095,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16af…b0c4backed Bulls67c4,108$2,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc86a…bcabbacked Bulls67c3,971$2,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.471764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Wizards31c3,915$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.595843.1%25 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bulls67c3,899$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.992,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Bulls70c3,605$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.4158953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Bulls69c3,527$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.281,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Bulls69c3,527$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.281,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards35c3,447$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.423,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Bulls66c3,359$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.938429.8%25 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Wizards31c3,355$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.0846145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Bulls68c3,348$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.254951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Wizards12c3,250$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.071,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Wizards31c3,123$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.184658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Wizards1c3,075$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3436023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards33c3,023$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.711,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bulls66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02058951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Bulls66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9843438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Wizards33c2,942$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.793554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x282f…e110backed Wizards32c2,897$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Bulls67c2,890$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.617356.2%41 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1520…0ddfbacked Bulls67c2,884$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.761963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Wizards28c2,884$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.365633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc70d…a6f9backed Bulls70c2,806$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.83775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb546…802cbacked Bulls67c2,701$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.182665.4%17 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wizards33c2,631$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.791,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd540…0e7dbacked Bulls67c2,531$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.224100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Bulls68c2,503$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.9410254.9%56 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae92…84ddbacked Wizards34c2,351$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Bulls68c2,300$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.221,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be2…494abacked Bulls68c2,300$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.472673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Bulls66c2,279$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.8686641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Bulls72c2,084$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.731,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Wizards26c2,066$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.8525226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Wizards5c2,037$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.874214.3%6 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bulls66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68048944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Wizards31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed Wizards4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Bulls72c1,953$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.9627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Wizards36c1,939$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6981,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4b…5345backed Wizards33c1,920$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.471566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Wizards10c1,892$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3733344.1%147 W · 186 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Bulls69c1,749$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.1329849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Wizards18c1,710$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.442,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Wizards32c1,698$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.3656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Wizards24c1,668$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3120537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Wizards30c1,651$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.246628.8%19 W · 47 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Wizards30c1,620$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.12839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bulls75c1,617$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.371,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Wizards33c1,569$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.918230.5%25 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec7…bcf7backed Bulls67c1,565$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8867…518cbacked Wizards31c1,551$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.812740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards31c1,504$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.763,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Wizards31c1,500$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.522637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ec…81c2backed Wizards3c1,471$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.611827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.