Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a50931db502386733ded31eb62a468026231bcf2c8dae54c8a9526d6397c978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,200 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 53c | 8,853$4,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,701.75 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 47c | 7,425$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,959.36 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 4,332$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.84 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Under | 52c | 4,240$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.61 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 3,460$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.71 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 3,189$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.15 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Over | 48c | 2,010$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 1,244$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.78 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 51c | 1,148$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Over | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 1,091$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.08 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 1c | 1,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 1,070$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.49 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ed…d4b2backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…079fbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b78ebacked Under | 51c | 991.25$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 988.96$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.15 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Over | 47c | 932.26$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.74 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 49c | 838.67$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.72 | 180 | 48.9%88 W · 92 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 53c | 545.2$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 490.18$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.55 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 53c | 370.61$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 54c | 356.22$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 294.88$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.35 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 51c | 272.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Over | 49c | 239.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…6fb2backed Over | 49c | 239.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Over | 49c | 239.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Under | 53c | 199.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Over | 49c | 161.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Over | 49c | 156.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 137.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 53c | 120.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 216 | 46.8%101 W · 115 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 103.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 102.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 95.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…070fbacked Under | 51c | 77.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 75.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 74.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 50c | 70.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 66.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 53c | 65.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…249cbacked Under | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…46e2backed Under | 52c | 53.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 47c | 49.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 48.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fd…013abacked Under | 51c | 48.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…9830backed Over | 50c | 47.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed Under | 53c | 46.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…ae96backed Over | 50c | 46.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…40f7backed Under | 53c | 44.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…971cbacked Under | 51c | 44.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…5632backed Under | 51c | 43.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…c1a4backed Over | 50c | 42.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…c9b8backed Under | 51c | 42.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…7c05backed Over | 50c | 41.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…87c4backed Over | 50c | 40.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…9f60backed Under | 51c | 40.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…34c8backed Under | 51c | 40.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 53c | 39.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…130cbacked Over | 50c | 39.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…ecd3backed Under | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…f637backed Over | 50c | 38.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…44f9backed Over | 50c | 37.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed Under | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…fafcbacked Under | 51c | 36.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 53c | 28.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 53c | 27.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x208b…237ebacked Under | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 159.5this page
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson TideAlabama Crimson Tide won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 151.5Over won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 154.5Over won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 155.5Over won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 156.5Over won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 157.5Over won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 158.5Over won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 160.5Under won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 162.5Under won
- Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 163.5Under won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-10.5)Alabama Crimson Tide won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)Alabama Crimson Tide won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-12.5)Alabama Crimson Tide won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5)Alabama Crimson Tide won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-2.5)Alabama Crimson Tide won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5)Alabama Crimson Tide won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.