NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d74323b44d917e2fed8dd8f4128f50aae811aa4bfe1716abf1a620b8e1539be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Spurs, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Raptors | 51c | 91,347$46,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,759.84 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Spurs | 49c | 67,557$33,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,103.1 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Raptors | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,399.96 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Spurs | 51c | 19,644$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Spurs | 49c | 7,700$3,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,772.98 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Raptors | 51c | 5,985$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.35 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs | 52c | 5,767$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 52c | 5,252$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 49c | 3,265$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.85 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Spurs | 52c | 3,076$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.52 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Spurs | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…43f3backed Spurs | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Raptors | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.98 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 49c | 1,413$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.17 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Spurs | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Raptors | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Spurs | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Spurs | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Spurs | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs | 52c | 510$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.1 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 50c | 293$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors | 51c | 207.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Spurs | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Raptors | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Spurs | 52c | 181.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 51c | 179.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Raptors | 49c | 176.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Spurs | 49c | 133.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Spurs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…c6b8backed Spurs | 52c | 78.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 71c | 66.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Spurs | 52c | 64.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Spurs | 44c | 45.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Spurs | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9860backed Spurs | 49c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Raptors | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Spurs | 49c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Spurs | 51c | 21.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Raptors | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spurs vs. RaptorsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Spurs vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.