TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arthur Feryof Arthur Fery, Toby Samuel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9243…658ebacked Toby Samuel43c6,420$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,734.273452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Arthur Fery57c3,856$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.5125453.1%135 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Arthur Fery57c3,500$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52072452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toby Samuel35c3,380$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.38,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Toby Samuel44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9816825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Toby Samuel43c2,244$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.9656651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Toby Samuel8c1,568$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8522020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Arthur Fery58c1,348$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.2193055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Arthur Fery60c1,047$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.174,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Toby Samuel43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.222,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Arthur Fery58c727.93$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.333,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Arthur Fery78c673.08$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.84,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toby Samuel21c664.55$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.878,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Toby Samuel45c663.6$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.621,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Arthur Fery57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25840144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Arthur Fery56c530.59$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.461,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Toby Samuel45c506$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.71,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Toby Samuel45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Arthur Fery55c365$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.251,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Toby Samuel44c340.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Arthur Fery55c299.93$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9712258.2%71 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Arthur Fery56c236.16$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9152557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe99…506bbacked Toby Samuel13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3067852.1%353 W · 325 L-2.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd304…3ed2backed Arthur Fery58c215.52$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Toby Samuel41c204.64$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.97,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Toby Samuel45c202.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1895050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Arthur Fery56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8834761.1%212 W · 135 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Arthur Fery55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Toby Samuel12c188.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0632732.1%105 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Arthur Fery54c183.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9569253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Arthur Fery56c180.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.281,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Toby Samuel44c179.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.237238.2%142 W · 230 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Arthur Fery56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5744952.8%237 W · 212 L+1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Toby Samuel22c177.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Toby Samuel46c175.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.51,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Arthur Fery57c172.41$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.141,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Arthur Fery55c167.84$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.533,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Toby Samuel42c166.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Arthur Fery55c150.68$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.131,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Arthur Fery55c138.32$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3489859.7%536 W · 362 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Arthur Fery67c135.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5374547.4%353 W · 392 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Toby Samuel45c135$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7510447.1%49 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Toby Samuel14c133.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.684,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Arthur Fery57c128.45$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2310859.3%64 W · 44 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Toby Samuel45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5058045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Toby Samuel44c108.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7473748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f2…042ebacked Arthur Fery55c108.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.297364.4%47 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7233…6520backed Arthur Fery58c101.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3810951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c92…4e7cbacked Toby Samuel13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134751.1%24 W · 23 L+6.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+47.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Toby Samuel45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4596755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Toby Samuel44c98.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.531,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Arthur Fery58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Arthur Fery55c84$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.899249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Arthur Fery55c84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.487,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Arthur Fery57c80.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.717046.5%79 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toby Samuel37c64.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.721,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Toby Samuel23c61.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1192145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Toby Samuel45c60.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3878847.5%374 W · 414 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Arthur Fery59c60.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.755750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Arthur Fery56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.46,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Toby Samuel45c56.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4660651.8%314 W · 292 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe432…a4a4backed Toby Samuel45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Toby Samuel20c53.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Arthur Fery54c51.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8539254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Arthur Fery57c51.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0691755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Arthur Fery56c49.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7822255.4%123 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Arthur Fery57c48.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8551644.8%231 W · 285 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arthur Fery56c48.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.297,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Toby Samuel44c46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2423759.1%140 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Toby Samuel44c45.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Toby Samuel47c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1574955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Arthur Fery57c44.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2567848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bc…3503backed Arthur Fery56c44.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7811968.9%82 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Toby Samuel44c44.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.392,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdae…5fbfbacked Toby Samuel43c39.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Toby Samuel32c37.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2585742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34c8…ab39backed Arthur Fery58c37.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6a58backed Arthur Fery56c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.847261.1%44 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed Arthur Fery58c35.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.185650%28 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Arthur Fery56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7127853.2%148 W · 130 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b1…5b57backed Arthur Fery56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3b…583bbacked Arthur Fery56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Arthur Fery56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Toby Samuel43c34.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9178536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ac…fcc5backed Arthur Fery59c34.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.073246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd6…352dbacked Arthur Fery58c33.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Arthur Fery79c33.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.228048.9%137 W · 143 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Toby Samuel44c33.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7841045.1%185 W · 225 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Arthur Fery55c31.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.168365.1%54 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab63…1551backed Arthur Fery58c30.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.832152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Arthur Fery71c28.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.193,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Toby Samuel45c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.681255.3%449 W · 363 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…1d65backed Arthur Fery57c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.123562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Toby Samuel44c25.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Arthur Fery61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8843250.5%218 W · 214 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b75…409ebacked Toby Samuel44c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.566352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e94…776bbacked Toby Samuel45c23.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.464531.1%14 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff4…2aa4backed Arthur Fery58c22.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.714161%25 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Arthur Fery59c18.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.536,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x362c…67e6backed Arthur Fery57c18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7437255.6%207 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.