Middle East · resolved market
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f960d900523fd31811d50d6779b2ab532c7f0216920721dbbc7e9c9e80ee748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 48c | 4,398$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.58 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 1c | 4,051$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,272$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 79c | 2,676$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.62 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…399cbacked No | 1c | 2,357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,724$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 54c | 1,391$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.16 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 1c | 1,276$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 43c | 1,225$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 21c | 1,125$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.89 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 994.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…dba5backed No | 1c | 954.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…e123backed Yes | 18c | 707.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed Yes | 44c | 681.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 25c | 630$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked No | 2c | 621.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 63c | 555.62$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.77 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 16c | 525$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.75 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 67c | 469.73$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 50c | 360.83$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 24c | 360$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…6be7backed Yes | 26c | 354.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…f928backed Yes | 33c | 301.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 299.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 41c | 245.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 220.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 70c | 218.67$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.51 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 52c | 179.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 168.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 22c | 149.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 138.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 77c | 98.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 31c | 96.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 93.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed No | 56c | 79.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 69.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…d552backed No | 78c | 64.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 27c | 58.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 35.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 33c | 35.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 35.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…57a8backed No | 72c | 34.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…19a9backed No | 58c | 34.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…5770backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3528…fe10backed No | 77c | 27.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 73c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -15.5wins | -0.33per pick | 69cpaid | -51%equal weight | 26-0.22 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.