NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe6519a6daa6b371d46d71258b47b2d16318693ae785a9ca7efd5c1f92c2aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Thunder | 50c | 9,082$4,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,540.95 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Suns | 50c | 6,922$3,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,459.4 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…baa3backed Suns | 7c | 2,025$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…ca79backed Suns | 50c | 1,938$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.03 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Thunder | 22c | 1,507$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.61 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Suns | 50c | 1,170$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Suns | 17c | 999$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Thunder | 64c | 994.3$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.81 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Suns | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Suns | 12c | 725$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Suns | 19c | 711$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Suns | 19c | 711$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Thunder | 9c | 658.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.27 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Thunder | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Suns | 9c | 586$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 138 | 37.7%52 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Thunder | 4c | 556.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.78 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Suns | 2c | 527.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Suns | 8c | 520$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Suns | 23c | 469.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Suns | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Thunder | 59c | 358.19$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Suns | 22c | 356$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Suns | 22c | 350$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Suns | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Suns | 8c | 325$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Suns | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Suns | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Suns | 9c | 293$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Suns | 18c | 266$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Suns | 22c | 265.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Suns | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Suns | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Suns | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Suns | 50c | 230.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Thunder | 50c | 197.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Thunder | 52c | 194.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Suns | 22c | 173$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Suns | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Suns | 49c | 119.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Suns | 50c | 106.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Suns | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Thunder | 51c | 95.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Suns | 34c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 52c | 78.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Thunder | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Suns | 57c | 51.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4e…1e3ebacked Thunder | 51c | 39.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Thunder | 50c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Suns | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 1.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.