TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,211 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under50c6,489$3,241 inLost-$3,240.6820744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over50c6,000$3,000 inWon+$3,00032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c2,725$1,335 inLost-$1,335.073,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under49c1,738$848 inLost-$847.852,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over53c1,447$767 inWon+$680.0918536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14fe…e0fdbacked Over50c1,352$679 inWon+$672.593259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Over51c1,054$538 inWon+$516.639437.2%35 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Over51c722.53$368 inWon+$354.041,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa467…587dbacked Over51c503.93$257 inWon+$246.931040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed Over51c399.99$204 inWon+$196988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c325.11$159 inLost-$159.32,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Under50c176$88 inLost-$883357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Over52c109.74$57 inWon+$52.7342740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over50c100$50 inWon+$501,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under47c75.47$35 inLost-$35.4776247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d5…7620backed Over53c55.01$29 inWon+$25.853253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Under50c40$20 inLost-$2014844.6%66 W · 82 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e8…82d1backed Over52c30.11$16 inWon+$14.452634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b88…8b2dbacked Under52c28.1$15 inLost-$14.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$1010148.5%49 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.